Dissertation Research: History matters: predicting fine-scale biodiversity in a dynamic rainforest system

无脊椎动物代表了动物多样性的大部分，但很少在生物多样性的空间分析。该项目揭示了当代和历史气候在塑造高生物多样性地区，澳大利亚东北部雨林的无脊椎动物类群的物种周转模式的相对贡献。虽然人们认识到历史条件在塑造当代生物多样性模式方面发挥着重要作用，但历史很少被纳入经验模型。拟议的工作整合了分子，分布和环境数据与空间明确的晚更新世气候波动模型预测营业额在两个不同的，但知之甚少的无脊椎动物群体，昆虫和蜗牛。 拟议的项目将研究扩散能力对物种周转模式的影响，以及地理尺度对形成历史和当代因素对物种周转的相对贡献的影响。 这项研究加强了与澳大利亚分类学家和生态建模者的现有国际研究伙伴关系。这项研究的结果将在美国和澳大利亚的科学和公共论坛上传播。这项研究将通过描述物种过去如何应对气候变化来更好地了解它们未来可能如何应对，从而使社会受益。在这里开发的方法和见解，历史上的无脊椎动物生物多样性的空间分布的影响，具有相关性的高生物多样性的生态系统。

Invertebrates represent the bulk of animal diversity, but are rarely represented in spatial analyses of biodiversity. This project sheds light on the relative contributions of contemporary and historical climate in shaping patterns of species turnover of invertebrate taxa in a high biodiversity area, the rainforests of north eastern Australia. Although it is recognized that historical conditions play a large role in shaping contemporary patterns of biodiversity, history is rarely included in empirical models. The proposed work integrates molecular, distributional and environmental data with spatially explicit models of late Pleistocene climate fluctuation to predict turnover in two diverse, but poorly-known invertebrate groups, insects and snails. The proposed project examines the effect of dispersal capability on patterns of species turnover and the effect of geographic scale in shaping the relative contribution of historical and contemporary factors on species turnover. This research strengthens existing international research partnerships with taxonomists and ecological modelers in Australia. Results of this research will be disseminated in scientific and public forums in the USA and Australia. This research will benefit society by describing how species have responded to climate change in the past to better understand how they may respond in the future. The methods and insights developed here regarding the effect of history on the spatial distribution of invertebrate biodiversity have relevance to high biodiversity ecosystems worldwide.