Short-term predictability of Arctic climate

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。PI的首要目标是调查短期北极气候的可预测性，并提高对导致短期北极气候变化的机制的理解。涉及海冰的耦合相互作用是她的主要关注点。新的海洋和海冰状态估计吸收了海洋和海冰观测结果，这使得首次有可能正确初始化完全耦合的气候模式，以研究短期北极气候预测。一些气候模型，包括社区气候系统模型，似乎能够高质量地模拟北极气候，应该是这样一个活动的良好候选人：她建议使用新的CCSM 4集合预报来验证短期北极气候预报的可预测性。她将研究制作北极季节到年际预报的方法。她将在项目结束前制作北极海冰和气候系统的短期概率预报。由于许多对气候变化时间尺度具有根本重要性的相同海冰物理过程也是短期预测的关键，因此她将利用从短期预测中获得的对模型的理解来解释未来温室效应气候变化的预测。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).The PI's overarching goal is to investigate short-term Arctic climate predictability and to improve understanding of the mechanisms that give rise to short-term Arctic climate variability. Coupled interactions involving sea ice are her chief focus. New ocean and sea ice state estimates that assimilate both ocean and sea ice observations make it possible for the first time to properly initialize fully coupled climate models to investigate short-term Arctic climate forecasts. A few climate models, including the Community Climate System Model, appear capable of high quality simulations of Arctic climate and should be good candidates for such an activity: She proposes to validate predictability of short-term Arctic climate forecasts using an ensemble forecast with the new CCSM4. She will investigate methods to produce Arctic seasonal to interannual forecasts. She will produce short-term probability forecasts of the Arctic sea ice and climate system by the end of the project. Since many of the same sea ice physical processes of fundamental importance for climate change time scales are also key to short-term forecasts, she will use understanding gained about the model from short-term predictions, which are more easily verifiable, to interpret projections of future greenhouse warming climate change.