LTREB: Long-Term Studies of African Lions

在接下来的10年里，塞伦盖蒂狮子项目将进行全面的研究，以构建和测试详细的种群和群落生态模型。首先，该项目将研究随机环境中的狮子种群动态，构建广义加性和广义线性模型，包括种群水平变量（整体食物供应，气候和人口密度），骄傲水平变量（当地食物供应，骄傲规模和结构）和个体变量（年龄和性别）。其次，该项目将调查空间异质性在稳定竞争性食肉动物物种共存方面的作用。猎豹，狮子和鬣狗可能会表现出不同的利基战略，创造一个网状的格局内的整体格局共存的占用。第三，由于角马迁徙即将崩溃，该项目可能会测量猎物可用性大规模丧失对狮子种群动态和社会性的影响。虽然预计群体生活在人口密度高的广泛资源分布中很常见，但应将群体生活限制在低密度的少数局部地区。更广泛的影响：本研究的数据将被世界各地的野生动物管理者使用，为预测栖息地变化和破碎化的后果、识别物种共存所需的景观特征以及衡量疾病控制计划的有效性提供重要的见解。根据研究人员过去的经验，继续这一长期计划将导致大量的出版物，美国和坦桑尼亚的研究生在生态学和流行病学的培训，并在大众媒体广泛报道。

In the next 10 yrs, the Serengeti lion project will conduct comprehensive research to construct and test detailed models of population and community ecology. First, the project will investigate lion population dynamics in stochastic environments, constructing generalized additive and generalized linear models with population-level variables (overall food availability, climate and population density), pride-level variables (local food availability, pride size and structure) and individual variables (age and sex). Second, the project will investigate the role of spatial heterogeneity in stabilizing the coexistence of competing carnivore species. Cheetahs, lions and hyenas may show divergent niche strategies that create a reticulated pattern of occupancy within an overall pattern of coexistence. Third, the project will likely measure the impact of a large-scale loss in prey availability on lion population dynamics and sociality, owing to the impending collapse of the wildebeest migration. While group living is predicted to be common across a wide range of resource distributions at high population densities, grouping should be restricted to a few localized areas at low densities. Fourth, the project will measure cycle length of four viral diseases to test predictions of well parameterized multi-host models.Broader Impacts: Data from this study will be used by wildlife managers throughout the world, providing important insights for predicting the consequences of habitat change and fragmentation, identifying the landscape features necessary for species co-existence and measuring the effectiveness of disease control programs. Based on the investigator's past experience, continuation of this long-term program will result in numerous publications, training of American and Tanzanian graduate students in ecology and epidemiology, and widespread reporting in the popular press.