Collaborative Research: ESE:Climate Change/Variability and Armed Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa.

冷战结束后，武装冲突的数量有所减少。尽管气候变化有可能逆转这一有利趋势，但武装冲突不那么严重也是一个长期趋势。气温上升可能导致干旱并增加自然灾害(包括洪水和飓风)。由此导致的移徙以及与东道国社区的冲突可能会导致当地资源匮乏，从而增加冲突的风险。气候变化可能会削弱欠发达国家政治不稳定的政权，进而加强挑战政府的叛乱运动的力量，并加剧社区冲突。调查指标将研究具体的物理现象(干旱和自然灾害)，然后追踪这些现象的社会和经济影响，以估计冲突可能产生的影响。气候变化的预测影响不会导致所有社会的冲突风险增加，而是取决于具体国家和背景因素。对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的调查将在区域和地方两个范围内进行。利用自然(气候)和社会(暴力)耦合系统的预测模型，通过反馈循环和调解社会-政治-经济变量，私营部门指标将衡量不利气候变化和/或气候多变性对武装冲突发生率的影响，确定哪些中介因素影响这种影响的比率，并根据不同的气候变化/多变性情景预测暴力后果。来自大量气候、卫星图像的环境(土地利用)、社会经济和暴力来源的数据将被整合到一个地理信息系统中，100公里网格是主要的分析尺度。在东非选定背景下的地方研究(在当地研究网络的支持下)将通过探索将气候/环境变化与暴力事件联系起来的地方变化过程来补充统计研究。由于缺乏经验证据和科学文献对可能关系的程度缺乏共识，评估气候变化对安全的影响的努力失败了。美国和国际机构最近的声明提出，气候变化/变异性是现有问题(贫困、社会紧张、环境退化、领导不力和政治机构薄弱)的威胁倍增，可能会威胁到弱国的国内稳定。气候变化/变化性的可能影响是由环境条件，特别是政府政策、社会经济资源以及区域和种族界线上现有的裂痕所调节的。撒哈拉以南非洲已被确定为最脆弱的区域，有可能在区域内大量移徙/迁出，以避免因资源减少而导致的社区冲突的生活质量恶化。这项研究将有助于美国国内和国际上的政策辩论，到目前为止，由于不可靠的冲突措施、有争议的气候变化指标、关于地方差异的信息，以及自然/气候科学和冲突研究社区之间缺乏联系，这些政策辩论一直回避这一问题。

The number of armed conflicts has declined after the end of the Cold War. There is also a long-term trend towards less severe armed conflicts, though climate change threatens to reverse this favorable trend. Rising in temperatures are likely to cause drought and increase natural hazards (including floods and hurricanes). Resulting migration and in turn, conflict with host communities can lead to local scarcities, increasing the risk of conflict. Climate change will possibly weaken politically-unstable regimes in low-development countries, in turn strengthening the hand of insurgent movements challenging governments and adding to communal conflict. The PIs will look at specific physical phenomena (droughts and natural hazards) whose social and economic effects will then be traced to estimate the probable implications for conflict. The projected impacts of climate change will not result in elevated conflict risk in all societies but depends on country-specific and contextual factors. The investigation will take place at two scales, the regional and the local, for the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. Using a predictive model of the coupled natural (climate) and social (violence) systems, with feedback loops and mediating socio-political-economic variables, the PIs will measure the impact of adverse climate change and/or changes in climate variability on the rate of armed conflict, determine which mediating factors influence the rate of this impact, and project the violence outcomes on the basis of different climate change/variability scenarios. The data from the substantial climate, satellite imaged environmental (land-use), socio-economic and violence sources will be integrated in a geographic information system, with 100 kilometers grids being the primary scale of analysis. Local studies in selected contexts in East Africa (with the support of local research networks) will complement the statistical study by exploring the locally-varying processes linking climate/environmental change to violent events.Efforts to assess the security implications of climate change have foundered on the paucity of empirical evidence and the lack of consensus in the scientific literature of the extent of the possible relationship. Recent statements by U.S. and international agencies propose climate change/variability as a threat multiplier to existing problems (poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions) that might threaten domestic stability in weak states. Possible impacts of climate change/variability are mediated by contextual conditions, especially governmental policies, socio-economic resources, and existing fractures along regional and ethnic lines. Sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as the most vulnerable region, with the possibility of significant intra-regional migration/emigration to escape a worsening quality of life leading to communal conflict over declining resources. The research will contribute to policy debates within the US and internationally which, to date, have skirted the issue due to unreliable conflict measures, debatable climate change indicators, information on local differences, and the lack of contact between the natural/climate science and conflict studies communities.