Imprisionment and Reoffending

这项研究的目的是提供科学可靠的证据，说明与非监禁处罚相比，监禁经历对再犯罪的影响。回顾关于监禁对再犯罪的影响的经验文献表明，总的来说，证据指向的是导致犯罪的效果，而不是预防效果。然而，这样的回顾也表明，这一结论的证据基础是薄弱的。现有研究中最重要的统计弱点是它容易受到“选择偏差”的影响。也就是说，即使对衡量的案件和个人特征进行了广泛的统计控制，被送进监狱的人可能仍然与那些被定罪但没有因与累犯有关的未衡量特征而入狱的人保持系统的不同。为了克服挑选问题，我们建议利用将案件随机分配给宾夕法尼亚州和哥伦比亚特区刑事法院法官的做法。由于随机分配，不同法官之间的案件特点不会有系统性的差异。跨法官判处监禁的可能性的差异将被用作推断监禁对再犯罪的影响的基础。监禁是一种经济代价高昂的制裁，对被监禁者的家庭成员，特别是儿童造成经济和心理损失，并因其对少数群体成员和社区的不同影响而引发社会正义问题。因此，监狱的正当性不仅是提供甜点的工具，还必须在很大程度上取决于它所证明的保护社会秩序的效用。因此，了解监禁对再犯罪的影响应是制定惩戒政策的一个关键考虑因素。

The aim of this research is to provide scientifically sound evidence on the effect of the experience of imprisonment compared to a noncustodial sanction on reoffending. Review of the empirical literature on imprisonment effects on reoffending indicates that, on balance, the evidence points to a criminogenic rather than a preventive effect. However, such a review also indicates that the evidentiary base for this conclusion is weak.The most important statistical weakness of much of the existing research is its vulnerability to "selection bias." That is, even with extensive statistical controls for measured case and person characteristics, persons sent to prison may remain systematically different from those convicted but not imprisoned on unmeasured characteristics related to recidivism. To overcome the selection problem we propose to capitalize on the random assignment of cases to judges in the criminal courts of Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia. Because of random assignment, there will be no systematic difference in case characteristics across judges. Cross-judge variation in their likelihood of imposing a prison sentence will be used as the basis for inferring the effect of incarceration on reoffending. Imprisonment is a sanction that is financially costly, exacts an economic and psychological toll on family members of the incarcerated, particularly children, and raises issues of social justice due to its differential impact on minority members and communities. Thus, beyond being an instrument for meting out just desserts, prison's justification must rest heavily on its demonstrated utility to protect the social order. Understanding the effects of incarceration on reoffending should thus be a key consideration in formulating correctional policy.