RAPID: Representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and its Hydroclimate and Surface Temperature Links in Climate Simulations

这是由一封亲爱的同事来信(NSF 11-006)资助的16个快速反应(RAPID)项目之一，该信鼓励对为政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告(IPCC AR5)准备的气候模型模拟进行诊断分析。在这些项目中进行的研究有望导致更详细的模型相互比较，更好地理解稳健的模型行为，以及更好地理解和量化未来气候模拟中的不确定性。本项目将分析耦合模型相互比较项目(CMIP5)模型，重点是大西洋十年振荡(AMO)变率及其水文气候影响的表示。AMO以5-80年的时间尺度变化，并对北美的水文气候产生相当大的影响，例如降水和干旱、地表气温和大西洋飓风。根据其阶段的不同，AMO的影响可以抵消或加剧北半球大陆上的温室气体强迫变暖信号，时间跨度为数十年。因此，承担十年预测和十年预测的气候模型不能错误地描述AMO的可变性。该项目更广泛的影响在于它对IPCC AR5的支持，该AR5旨在向世界各地的决策者提供有关气候变化及其后果的信息。该项目特别寻求评估AMO在耦合气候模式中的代表性。因此，这项研究将有助于更好地理解数十年的自然变化和长期变化在20世纪和21世纪气候演变中的作用。通过提供最新版本气候模型的基线，这项研究将直接解决模型缺陷对模型可信度的问题。

This is one of 16 Rapid Response (RAPID) projects funded as the result of a Dear Colleague Letter (NSF 11-006) encouraging diagnostic analyses of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Research conducted in these projects is expected to lead to more detailed model intercomparisons, better understanding of robust model behaviors, and better understanding and quantification of uncertainty in future climate simulations.This project will analyze the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models with a focus on the representation of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) variability and its hydroclimate impacts. The AMO varies in phase on a timescale of 5-8 decades, and exerts considerable influence on North American hydroclimate, e.g. precipitation and droughts, surface air-temperature, and Atlantic hurricanes. Depending on its phase, the AMO impact can either offset or exacerbate the greenhouse gas forced warming signal over the continents in the Northern Hemisphere over a multidecadal period. Thus climate models undertaking decadal predictions and multidecadal projections cannot afford to misrepresent AMO variability. The broader impact of the project lies in its support of the IPCC AR5, which is intended to provide information on climate change and its consequences to decision makers worldwide. This project seeks in particular to evaluate the representation of the AMO in coupled climate models. Thus the research will lead to improved understanding of the role of multidecadal natural variability and secular change in the evolving climate of the 20th and 21st centuries. By providing a baseline on latest versions of the climate models, this study will directly address issues of model deficiencies on model credibility.