CAREER: A Multi-Scale Approach to Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrologic and Geomorphic Response of Watershed Systems within an Uncertainty Framework

目前评估气候变化对流域系统影响的方法是不充分的：它们基于对气候模型的特别选择；它们侧重于非常粗略的尺度上的指标，脱离了地方(通常是河流或洪泛区)尺度上的人类活动和生态系统服务的现实；它们没有对与流域建模和对未来的预测相关的任何不确定性作出任何评估。这项研究将通过跨学科建模和实地观察以及户外、讲座和实验室教育活动的综合计划，连接流域系统的多尺度、时空连接，并解决与其预测相关的不确定性。该项目将把重点放在密歇根州，那里的一些观测指标已经显示出与气候变暖一致的趋势，包括更短的冬季、更高的年平均气温和更频繁的强降水事件。在该项目的研究部分，将在全州范围内沿东南方向开发一些案例研究。西北偏北气候、水文、农业活动梯度。除了综合现有的大量数据集外，还将进行气候强迫和流态特征的现场监测，为模型评估提供数据。来自世界气候研究计划署的耦合模式比较项目的气候变化预测的多模型集合将使用化石密集型、中层和低层来缩小尺度。未来二氧化碳排放情景(根据政府间气候变化专门委员会定义)。推断的概率信息将用于评估气候变化对流域系统在早期(2010？2039)、中期(2040？2069)和世纪末(2070？2099)的影响。具体地说，将利用多尺度、基于物理的流域表面/地下过程和水流动力学建模框架，通过嵌套动力学建模的能力，对案例研究流域的水文和水动力状况的基本特征进行研究。与气候预测的偏差和分水岭模型的不准确相关的总不确定性将被量化。这项研究产生的缩小尺度的气候预测和水文和水动力模拟结果的广泛数据集将提供气候变化补偿和缓解规划所需的大量信息。该项目的宣传部分将开展教育活动，重点是加强第一标题学校7年级学生的科学课程方案，并提高对人类活动对分水岭进程后果的认识。为期一周的暑期学校的教育活动的重点将放在密歇根州、威斯康星州和明尼苏达州部落的美洲原住民青年中服务不足和代表性不足的学生群体。通过研究和推广计划的整合，该项目将造福于水文科学界、中学生、本科生和研究生。全球气候模型是用于探索地球-S气候在不同人类活动情景下未来将如何演变的工具。这些模型的结果被用于气候影响研究。这些研究的典型应用涉及数百至数千平方英里地区的大型水文变量；它们很少能提供相关的不确定性；目前，没有任何研究可以研究未来对水流水动力特性或洪泛平原淹没的影响。然而，大多数气候变化补偿和缓解战略需要与人类活动和生态系统服务规模相关的信息，这些信息通常侧重于流域、溪流、农田等。它们还需要对与对未来的预测相关的不确定性进行估计，以便在气候预测不准确的情况下做出更明智的决定。针对这些社会需求，这项研究将以多模型预测的形式最大限度地利用关于气候变化的现有信息，并开发出推断气候变化预测的不确定性的方法。与以前的研究不同，该项目将综合一系列水文/水动力学模型和观测数据，以建立在整个流域系统中传播气候信号信息的能力：从源头(源头)地区到溪流通道，以及水流特征的细节。为了确保模型应用的问题得到具体解决，并确保研究结果产生实际影响，将在密歇根州各地开展案例研究。此外，该职业项目将整合教育活动，重点加强服务不足/代表性不足的学生群体(低收入家庭和美洲原住民)的科学课程计划，旨在增强他们的思维定势，成为未来的领导者，并将科学和工程作为他们的职业选择

The current ways of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed systems are inadequate: they are based on ad hoc selection of climate models; they focus on metrics at very coarse scales detached from the reality of human activities and ecosystem services at the local (often the stream reach or floodplain) scales; and they do not yield any assessment of uncertainty associated with watershed modeling and projections into the future. This research will bridge the multi-scale, space-time connectivity of watershed systems and address uncertainty associated with their predictions through a comprehensive program of inter-disciplinary modeling and field observations and outdoor, lecture, and lab educational activities. The project will focus on the state of Michigan, where a number of observed metrics already demonstrate trends consistent with a warming climate, including shorter winters, higher mean annual temperatures, and higher frequency of heavy precipitation events. In the research component of the project, a number of case studies will be developed throughout the state along the south-southeast ? north-northwest climatic, hydrologic, and agricultural activities gradient. In addition to a synthesis of a large array of existing data sets, in situ monitoring of climatic forcing and characteristics of flow regime will be carried out to provide data for model evaluation. Multi-model ensembles of climate change projections from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project will be downscaled using ?fossil-intensive?, ?mid-?, and ?lower-level? future emission scenarios of carbon dioxide (defined according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The inferred probabilistic information will be used to assess climate change impacts on watershed systems for early (2010?2039), mid- (2040?2069), and late century (2070?2099) periods. Specifically, changes in essential characteristics of hydrological and hydrodynamic regimes will be investigated for the case study basins using a multi-scale, physically-based framework of modeling watershed surface/subsurface processes and flow hydrodynamics, integrated through a capability of Nested Dynamics Modeling. The total uncertainty associated with biases of climate projections and inaccuracies of a watershed model will be quantified. An extensive data set of downscaled climate projections and outputs of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling generated in this research will provide a comprehensive volume of information required in climate change compensation and mitigation planning. The outreach component of the project will implement educational activities focusing to enhance the science class program of 7th graders in Title I schools and increase awareness of the consequences of human activities on watershed processes. The emphasis of educational activities of a week-long summer-school will be placed on underserved and underrepresented groups of students of Native American youth of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota tribes. Through the integration of research and outreach programs, the project will benefit the hydrological sciences community, middle-school, undergraduate, and graduate students.Global climate models are the tools used for exploring how earth?s climate will evolve in future under different scenarios of human activity. Outputs of these models are used in climate impact studies. The typical applications of these studies concern large-scale hydrologic variables for areas of hundreds-to-thousands of square miles; very rarely they can provide the associated uncertainty; currently, there are no studies that can address future impacts on flow hydrodynamic characteristics or floodplain inundation. Yet, most of climate change compensation and mitigation strategies require information that is relevant to scales of human activities and ecosystem services, which typically focus on watersheds, streams, agricultural fields, etc. They also require an estimate of uncertainty associated with projection into the future to make better informed decisions in conditions of climate projection inaccuracies. Responding to these societal needs, this research will use maximum available information on climate change in the form of multi-model projections and develop methodologies that will infer uncertainty of climate change predictions. In contrast to previous studies, the project will synthesize a range of hydrologic/hydrodynamic models and observational data to create capabilities for propagating information on climate signals through the entire watershed system: from headwater (source) areas to stream channels, and to the details of flow characteristics. To ensure that the issues of model applications are addressed specifically and that research findings make a practical impact, case studies will be developed throughout the state of Michigan. Furthermore, this CAREER project will integrate educational activities focusing to enhance the science class program of underserved/underrepresented student groups (low income families and Native Americans) targeting to empower their mind-sets to become future leaders and pursue science and engineering as their career choices