CNH: Coupled Natural-Human Dynamics in a Vulnerable Coastal System

这一跨学科研究项目将调查特别容易受到自然资源损失和自然灾害影响的沿海社区的可持续性。 调查人员将把重点放在路易斯安那州的下密西西比河流域，这是美国大陆和世界上最脆弱的海岸之一。 多年来，这个三角洲地区遭受了多种威胁和灾害，如土地流失，沉降，海平面上升，洪水，飓风和石油泄漏。 土地消失是该地区南部的一个严重问题。在过去的十年中，显着的人口和经济增长发生在研究区域的北方的一部分，而新奥尔良周围的南部地区经历了人口和经济下降。 一个紧迫的问题是，路易斯安那州南部沿海地区是否达到了一个临界点，使其成本太高，无法维持。 如果是这样的话，同样类型的经济和生态系统功能是否逐渐迁移到北部的邻近地区？ 研究人员将使用耦合自然-人类系统方法量化和解释这些变化，并评估这些发现对未来规划和缓解的影响。研究人员将追求的四个目标是：（1）开发评估沿海系统的可持续性或恢复力的方法;（2）开发一个系统级模型，以捕捉和量化主要自然和人类组成部分之间的动态联系;（3）比较和对比路易斯安那州沿海北方和南部地区之间的恢复力，以了解恢复力的控制因素;（4）为规划和决策模拟未来情景。本项目将采用自然-人类系统耦合方法评估路易斯安那州密西西比河下游流域的可持续性。 它将增加对影响沿海系统可持续性的关键因素以及这些关键因素如何在系统一级相互作用的基本了解。 在路易斯安那州沿海的两个系统之间的比较将提供新的知识，这两个系统如何在过去耦合，提高了对系统相互作用的理解，在目前和促进对未来的预测。 在这个项目中开发的一套可持续发展评估和建模工具和软件将是有价值的教育，以及为学生，其他研究人员和决策者的决策工具。 该项目将吸引广泛的受众，包括K-12学生和来自服务不足学校的教师，地方政府官员，环保团体和公众。项目结果将向决策者和公众通报如何提高该区域的复原力，并将提供更好地规划未来的情景。 研究结果还将为世界上其他面临类似威胁和挑战的三角洲地区提供新的见解。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will investigate the sustainability of coastal communities that are especially vulnerable to natural resource losses and natural hazards. The investigators will focus on the Lower Mississippi River Basin in Louisiana, which is one of the most vulnerable coasts in the continental United States and the world. Over the years, this deltaic region has endured multiple threats and disasters, such as land loss, subsidence, sea-level rise, flooding, hurricanes, and oil spills. The disappearance of land is a critical problem in the southern part of the region. During the past decade, significant population and economic growth has occurred in the northern part of the study area, whereas the southern part surrounding New Orleans has experienced population and economic decline. A pressing question is whether southern coastal Louisiana reached a tipping point that makes it too costly to sustain. If so, has the same type of economic and ecosystem functions gradually migrated to the neighboring region to the north? The researchers will quantify and explain these changes using a coupled natural-human system approach, and they will evaluate the implications of those findings for future planning and mitigation. The four objectives the researchers will pursue are (1) to develop methods to assess the sustainability or resilience of a coastal system; (2) to develop a system-level model to capture and quantify the dynamic linkages among the major natural and human components; (3) to compare and contrast the resiliency between the northern and southern parts of coastal Louisiana so as to understand the resiliency control factors; and (4) to simulate future scenarios for planning and decision making.This project will assess the sustainability of the lower Mississippi River basin in Louisiana using a coupled natural-human system approach. It will increase basic understanding about the key factors affecting the sustainability of a coastal system and how these key factors interact at a system level. The comparison between the two systems in coastal Louisiana will provide new knowledge regarding how the two systems have been coupled in the past that enhances understanding of system interactions in the present and facilitates projections for the future. The set of sustainability assessment and modeling tools and software developed in this project will be valuable educational as well as decision-making tools for students, other researchers, and decision makers. The project will engage a wide audience, including K-12 students and teachers from underserved schools, local governmental officials, environmental groups, and the public. Project findings will inform policy makers and the public about how to increase the resilience of the region, and they will provide scenarios to better plan for the future. The findings also will provide new insights regarding other deltaic regions around the world that are faced with similar types of threats and challenges. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.