CNH: Enhancing Resilience of Coastal Ecosystems and Human Communities to Oceanographic Variability: Social and Ecological Feedbacks

该项目将研究自然系统和人类社区适应环境变化的能力。 该研究计划将专门调查海洋变化对墨西哥下加利福尼亚太平洋沿岸沿海海洋生态系统和人类社区的影响，以及当地和全球反馈对这些系统的恢复力和适应能力的影响。研究人员将：（1）确定沿海海洋变化的特征以及低氧或缺氧事件的模式和驱动因素;（2）评估变化，特别是缺氧事件对近岸物种、生态系统和渔业的影响，并将这些影响与过去的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件的影响进行比较;（3）评估影响当地社区对这些影响的反应的文化、社会和经济变量，特别是他们的意愿和能力，投资于当地的保护和适应;（4）评估美国公民的选择群体，以支持这些地方的保护工作的意愿，并确定哪些因素影响这种贡献。与其他一些沿海地区一样，下加利福尼亚的生态系统和渔业受到气候驱动的极端事件的严重影响。 1982- 1983年和1997- 1998年期间，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件造成关键资源的显著减少，最近加州海流区的低氧事件导致具有生态和商业重要性的海洋物种的高死亡率。 更好地了解人类和渔业适应海洋变化的能力，将有助于表明如何减轻气候变化和自然资源压力日益增加造成的变化增加所带来的社会和经济影响。 例如，该项目将帮助我们预测北美西部海域低氧事件的发生及其对渔业的影响，并设计海洋保护区以缓冲这些事件。 通过研究海洋不确定性的地方影响如何在社会中更广泛地传播，该项目将导致更广泛的适应战略。该项目还将培训本科生和研究生整合社会和生态研究，这是一个日益拥挤的世界所急需的技能。

This project will study the capacity of natural systems and human communities to adapt to environmental change. The research program will specifically investigate the impacts of oceanographic variability on coastal marine ecosystems and human communities of the Pacific coast of Baja California, Mexico, and the influences of local and global feedbacks on the resilience and adaptive capacity of these systems. Researchers will (1) characterize coastal oceanographic variability and the patterns and drivers of low-oxygen, or hypoxic, events; (2) assess the impacts of variability, particularly hypoxic events, on nearshore species, ecosystems, and fisheries, and compare these impacts with those of past ENSO events; (3) assess the cultural, social, and economic variables that influence the responses of local communities to these impacts, particularly their willingness and ability to invest in local conservation and adaptation; and (4) assess the willingness of selected groups of U.S. citizens to support these local conservation efforts and determine what factors influence such contributions. As in a number of other coastal regions, the ecosystems and fisheries off Baja California have been heavily affected by extreme events driven by climate. ENSO events caused significant declines in key resources during 1982-83 and 1997-98, and recent episodes of low oxygen in the California Current region resulted in high mortality of ecologically and commercially important marine species. A better understanding of the capacity of humans and fisheries to adapt to oceanographic variability will help show how to mitigate the social and economic impacts of increased variability due to climate change and growing pressure on natural resources. For example, this project will help allow us to anticipate the occurrence and effects on fisheries of low-oxygen events off western North America, and to design marine reserves so as to buffer them. By examining how the local effects of uncertainty in the ocean can spread more widely in society, the project will lead to broader adaptation strategies. The project will also train undergraduate and graduate students to integrate social and ecological studies, a vitally needed skill in an increasingly crowded world.