Information Technology, Automation, and the U.S. Workforce

最近的出版物和媒体报道重新引发了人们长期以来对自动化和信息技术（IT）的其他应用对美国劳动力的潜在负面影响的担忧，并引发了有关影响和潜在应对措施的新讨论。在成本效益高的地方，技术替代劳动力并不是一个新现象。今天，尽管有迹象表明，IT的使用范围和规模正在扩大，机器学习等新计算技术的发现和使用正在改变可以和将会自动化的东西。自动化的最终限制，以及劳动力和整个国家将如何适应，目前还不清楚。在某种程度上，IT可以承担现有工作的部分或全部责任，它减少了所需工人的数量，并改变了剩余工作的性质，例如，随着人们越来越多地与自动化助手一起工作。这种现象对个人影响重大，因为个人必须对自己的教育、培训和职业发展做出决定；对于劳动力需求将发生变化的企业和其他机构；对于决策者来说，他们必须了解对生产率、经济、失业、社会“安全网”以及未来教育和培训需求的影响。美国国家科学院的一项研究将考虑自动化和其他IT应用对美国劳动力可能产生的影响。它将考虑当前的知识和关于自动化程度提高的驱动因素的开放性问题；可能受影响的工作类型和规模；这些变化的社会影响；产生影响的时间框架；以及对教育、培训和劳动力发展的影响。通过证词、委员会召集的讨论、文献综述和委员会审议，委员会将审查当前可用的信息来源，考虑不同学科如何贡献知识，探索额外数据的帮助，并提出旨在更好地理解这一现象的研究问题。委员会的共识报告将提出一项研究议程，并描述数据和分析的类型和来源，以加深我们对IT和自动化对劳动力的影响的理解。因此，该项目将对信息技术对劳动力的影响提供更细致的理解，促进跨学科研究以提高我们的理解，并为未来的政策制定提供信息。

Recent publications and media reports have revived longstanding concerns about the potential negative effects of automation and other applications of information technology (IT) on the U.S. workforce, and prompted new discourse about implications and potential responses. Substitution of technology for labor where cost effective is not a new phenomenon. Today though there are indications that IT's growing scope and scale of use and the discovery and use of new computing techniques such as machine learning is changing what can and will be automated. The ultimate limits to automation and how the workforce--and the nation--will adapt are not clear. To the extent that IT can assume some or all of the responsibilities of existing jobs, it reduces the number of workers required and changes the nature of the work that remains, e.g., as people increasingly work with automated assistants. The phenomenon is of great consequence for individuals, who must make decisions about their own education, training, and career development; for businesses and other institutions whose labor needs will change; and for policy makers, who must understand the implications for productivity, the economy, unemployment, the social "safety net," and future education and training needs.A National Academies study will consider the possible impacts of automation and other applications of IT on the U.S. Workforce. It will consider current knowledge and open questions about the drivers of increased automation; the types and scale of jobs that might be affected; the societal implications of these changes; the time frame for impact; and implications for education, training, and workforce development. Through testimony, discussions convened by the committee, a literature review, and committee deliberations, the committee will examine currently available sources of information, consider how different disciplines could contribute knowledge, explore where additional data would help, and frame research questions aimed at better understanding the phenomenon. The committee's consensus report will set forth a research agenda and describe types and sources of data and analysis that would enhance our understanding of the workforce impacts of IT and automation. The project will thus provide a more nuanced understanding of the workforce impacts of information technology, stimulate interdisciplinary research to improve our understanding, and provide information to inform future policy making.