PIRE: Taming Water in Ethiopia: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Improve Human Security in a Water-Dependent Emerging Region

该项目有可能显著提高水资源预测的效率，这是一项至关重要的需求，因为由于城市化的不断发展、气候多变性的影响和其他因素，水资源供应变得越来越不稳定。该项目研究埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河流域（BNB）的人类、气候、水、农业和能源系统的交叉点。该项目的主要目标是研究和改进不确定性下的决策。该项目将社会科学、地球科学和工程研究交织在一起，以创建新的水预测模型，然后使用这些模型来了解影响社区和决策者如何考虑和使用科学信息的政治制度约束。由于全球决策者都面临着使用数据和模型的挑战，而这些数据和模型从来都不是完全确定的，因此，了解政治制度约束如何影响科学数据的使用将产生全球影响。在埃塞俄比亚进行这项研究特别有价值，因为埃塞俄比亚当地降水的年际变化是全球最高的之一，埃塞俄比亚在水资源管理方面的社会政治挑战也反映在许多其他发展中国家。因此，为BNB开发的改进的水模拟方法有可能在全球范围内具有价值，并且可以将对BNB水管理的政治和制度影响的更好理解应用于其他环境，从而对地球仪产生潜在的变革性影响。该项目将利用数据增强模型进行水文气候预测，并纳入社会科学数据，以提高巴尼亚卢卡次流域水文农业和水管理进程的可预测性。一个三阶段的纵向设计抓住了新的科学信息，政治体制动态，水，农业和能源活动之间不断变化的联系。该项目采用比较设计方法，利用和了解人类和自然系统的变化，反复研究耦合系统的每个方面如何影响脆弱的水文气候环境中的人类安全。这项研究提供了一种新的机制，以测试传统的理解“纯”科学对政治制度模型，承认社会因素的作用，在使用科学信息。这项研究将更好地了解人们如何应对科学的不确定性，其影响远远超出埃塞俄比亚和青尼罗河流域。该项目将整合研究、教育和外联，跨越学科、文化和地理界限，将人员和资源汇集在一起。可能的主要好处包括：为低收入社区开发和使用水资源预测制定实用路线图;培训一批新的美国学生，使他们能够在水资源和人类安全方面开展跨学科和国际工作，并提供电子学习和推广服务，使这一培训超出参与该项目的学生的范围;此外，该项目还将与科学家和许多其他对了解和管理水资源感兴趣的利益攸关方分享该项目的成果。该研究工作与NSF对食品，能源和水系统的新兴关注保持一致，该项目的结果可能有助于未来了解食品，能源和水关系的努力。该奖项由社会，行为和经济科学理事会多学科活动办公室共同资助。

This project has the potential to significantly improve the efficacy of water forecasting, a crucial need as water availability becomes increasingly inconsistent due to growing urbanization, the impacts of climate variability and other factors. The project studies the intersection of human, climate, water, agriculture, and energy systems in the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) of Ethiopia. The main objective of the project is to study and improve decision making under uncertainty. The project interweaves social science, geosciences and engineering research to create new models for water forecasting, then uses these models to understand the political-institutional constraints that affect how communities and decision-makers consider and use scientific information. Since decision-makers globally are faced with the challenge of using data and models that are never completely certain, an understanding of how political-institutional constraints impact use of scientific data will have global ramifications. Performing this research in Ethiopia is especially valuable since Ethiopia's inter-annual variability in local precipitation is one of the highest globally and Ethiopia's socio-political challenges in water management are mirrored in many other developing countries. Therefore, improved water modeling methods developed for the BNB have the potential to be valuable globally, and improved understanding of the political and institutional impacts on water management in the BNB can be applied to other environments with a potentially transformational impact around the globe. This project will develop hydro-climatic forecasts from data-enhanced models and incorporate social science data that will improve the predictability of sub-basin hydro-agricultural and water management processes in the BNB. A three-stage longitudinal design captures the changing links between new scientific information, political-institutional dynamics, and water, agricultural and energy activities. The project uses a comparative design method to harness and understand variation in both human and natural systems, investigating iteratively how each aspect of the coupled system influences human security in vulnerable hydro-climatic environments. The research proposed provides a novel mechanism to test the traditional understanding of "pure" science against a political-institutional model that acknowledges the role of social factors in the use of scientific information. The research will provide a better understanding of how people respond to scientific uncertainty with implications well beyond Ethiopia and the Blue Nile Basin. The project will integrate research, education and outreach, bringing people and resources together across disciplinary, cultural and geographical boundaries. Key likely benefits include: developing a practical roadmap for developing and using water forecasting in low income communities; training a new cadre of US students capable of interdisciplinary and international work on water and human security, and providing e-learning and outreach that will carry this training beyond the students participating in this project; and global public outreach to share the results of this project with scientists as well as many other stakeholders interested in understanding and managing water resources. The research effort aligns with NSF's emerging focus on food, energy, and water systems, and the results of this project are likely to benefit future efforts to understand the food, energy, and water nexus.This award is co-funded by the Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences' Office of Multidisciplinary Activities.