Collaborative Research: DIAGNOSING THE TIMING AND DRIVERS OF NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN HOLOCENE DROUGHTS WITH SINKHOLE LAKE RECORDS

本世纪，世界上80%的地区可能面临粮食生产、能源和国家安全、人类健康和生态系统所需的水资源不足的问题。联合国估计，到2080年，加勒比地区与气候变化相关的损失将达到112亿美元，其中38亿美元来自干旱。加勒比海和美国东南部的降雨与类似的海洋和大气因素有关。然而，降雨的地质记录记录了过去数千年来持续数十年至数百年的加勒比海极端大干旱。该项目旨在通过对3所院校的美国学生进行研究和教学，找出并传达这些特大旱灾的原因和驱动因素。它将帮助美国、发展中国家和小岛屿国家缓解未来的水安全风险。对美国东南部和加勒比地区本世纪降雨量变化的气候模型预测目前还不明确，加勒比地区现有的古气候档案记录了极端特大干旱，其严重程度是仪器时代没有观察到的。这些干旱显然在整个加勒比海地区并不统一，其原因仍然鲜为人知。在这里，研究人员提议利用成熟的地质技术和最先进的气候模型，建立一个加勒比海北部主要地区的长期降雨记录网络，以诊断加勒比海干旱的气候驱动因素。该奖项由古气候变化展望计划和国际科学与工程办公室共同资助。

This century, 80% of the world could face insufficient water necessary for food production, energy and national security, human health, and ecosystems. The United Nations estimates that Caribbean losses related to climate change by 2080 will be $11.2B, with $3.8B from drought. Rainfall in the Caribbean and American southeast is linked to similar ocean and atmospheric factors. However, geologic records of rainfall document extreme Caribbean megadroughts lasting tens to hundreds of years over the last several millennia. This project aims to identify and communicate the causes and drivers of these megadroughts through research and teaching American students at 3 institutions. It will help the United States, developing nations, and small island nations mitigate future water security risks. Climate model forecasts of rainfall changes in the American southeast and Caribbean for this century are currently equivocal, and available paleoclimate archives from the Caribbean document extreme megadroughts with a severity not observed in the instrumental era. These droughts were apparently not uniform across the Caribbean, and their causes remain poorly understood. Here, the investigators propose to develop a network of long-term rainfall records from key portions of the northern Caribbean using established geologic techniques and state-of-the-art climate modeling to diagnose the climatic drivers of Caribbean droughts.This award is cofunded by the Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change Program and the Office of International Science and Engineering.