NSF RAPID - Economic Risks, Immigration Threats and Public Attitudes After Britain's Brexit Referendum

该项目的动机是观察到，复兴的民粹主义已成为包括美国和联合王国在内的主要成熟民主国家的一股非常重要的力量。新民粹主义的一个重要影响发生在2016年6月23日，当时英国在全民公投中决定脱离欧盟。该项目侧重于公众对欧盟成员国身份的经济、安全和文化代价和利益的态度的性质、来源和后果，特别关注对移民的态度。该项目还将收集以下方面的数据：感知到的脱离欧盟的风险、对英国退欧的态度对2017年6月8日大选投票的影响，以及对英国和欧盟随后的“离婚”谈判的反应。英国历史性的脱欧决定引起了全球的关注，拟议中的项目将通过分析英国公众态度和政治行为的动态产生广泛影响。随着英国和欧盟之间的退欧谈判在未来一年展开，这些问题尤其相关。该项目还通过包括2005年伦敦恐怖袭击后首次使用的调查问题，审查了对恐怖主义的可能反应。该项目的所有数据和研究成果将以高度可访问的形式免费提供给学者、学生、政策制定者、媒体评论员和非专业人士。该项目包括在英国管理的三个大型(N=5000)国家小组调查。两项调查将在2017年6月8日英国大选前后进行，第三项调查将于2018年春季进行。这三项调查将包括一大批受访者，他们参加了在2016年6月英国退欧公投之前和之后进行的前三次全国调查。由此产生的六波国家小组，其中三波已经完成，有助于对感兴趣的态度和行为及其驱动因素的个人层面的动态进行复杂的多变量分析(例如，混合马尔科夫潜在类和动态面板模型)。通过复制自2004年以来进行的月度调查中提出的关键问题，新的调查还将提供独特的杠杆，以绘制2016年6月23日历史性的英国退欧公投前后14年间相关公众态度的总体水平演变。需要强调的是，拟议研究中提出的问题和收集的数据不会也不会出现在英国选举研究或任何其他调查中。

This project is motivated by the observation that resurgent populism has become a highly consequential force in major mature democracies including the United States and the United Kingdom. One important effect of the new populism occurred on June 23rd, 2016 when the UK decided in a national referendum to leave the European Union. The project focuses on the nature, sources, and consequences of public attitudes towards the economic, security and cultural costs and benefits of EU membership, paying particular attention to attitudes towards immigration. The project also will gather data on the perceived risks of leaving the EU, the impact of attitudes towards "Brexit" on voting in the June 8, 2017 general election, and reactions to subsequent "divorce" negotiations between the UK and the EU. The United Kingdom's historic Brexit decision has attracted global attention and the proposed project will produce broad impacts through analysis of the dynamics of public attitudes and political behavior in the UK. These are particularly pertinent as the Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU unfold over the coming year. The project also examines possible responses to terrorism by including survey questions first used following the 2005 terrorist attacks on London. The project's all data and research findings will be made freely available in highly accessible form to scholars, students, policy makers, media commentators and laypersons. This project consists of three large (N = 5000) national panel surveys administered in the UK. Two surveys will be fielded before and after the June 8, 2017 UK general election, with the third conducted in spring 2018. The three surveys will include a large panel of respondents participating in three previous national surveys administered prior to and following the June 2016 Brexit referendum. The resulting six-wave national panel, with three waves already done, facilitates sophisticated multivariate analyses (e.g., mixed Markov latent class and dynamic panel models) of the individual-level dynamics of the attitudes and behaviors of interest and their drivers. By replicating key questions asked in monthly surveys conducted since 2004, the new surveys also will provide unique leverage for mapping the aggregate-level evolution of relevant public attitudes over the 14-year period preceding and following the historic June 23, 2016 Brexit vote. It bears emphasis that the questions asked and data gathered in the proposed study are not and will not be available in the British Election Study or any other surveys.