NSFGEO-NERC Collaborative Research: Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)

NSFGEO-NERC合作研究：提高海冰的可预测性：海冰预测网络(SIPN2)的第二阶段北极海冰覆盖率的缩小引起了世界的关注。9月份的下降趋势在过去十年中加速，9月份海冰范围的10个最低值发生在过去10年中。预计到本世纪中叶，北极夏季基本上不会结冰。海冰覆盖的丧失对北极的生态系统和人类活动具有深远的影响，因此迫切需要在泛北极和区域范围内推进对所有季节的海冰预测。更好地量化海洋热量和气候变化在太平洋地区的作用、新的基于观测的海冰产品和网络活动，将促进对北极海冰季节可预测性、这种可预测性的限度以及预报对利益攸关方的经济价值的理解。由这笔赠款支持的网络将审查极端海洋表面变暖的根源和影响，以使太平洋北极冰盖继续大幅减少海冰范围和持续时间。早期海冰预测网络(SIPN)的一个关键发现是，在严重偏离趋势线的极端年份，预测9月份海冰范围的技能往往较差。SIPN第二阶段(SIPN2)下拟议研究的目标是通过采用包括建模、新产品、数据分析、科学网络和利益相关者参与的多学科方法来提高预测技能。这笔赠款将：利用动力模式社区地球系统模式(NCAR CESM)和统计预报工具，调查阿拉斯加北极次季节性海冰对海洋热量和大尺度大气强迫变化的敏感性，除总范围摘要外，还侧重于空间场；根据方法和初始化评估提交的海冰展望的准确性；开发新的基于观测的产品，以改进海冰预测，包括海冰厚度、表面粗糙度、融化池塘和积雪深度；评估海冰预报对管理阿拉斯加地区船舶交通和沿海村庄补给的利益攸关方的社会经济价值，并通过博客交流、可查阅的SIO报告、双月网络研讨会以及使公共数据来源对非科学家和科学家有用，使公众参与北极气候和海冰预测；继续和发展网络活动，如SIPN那样，生成SIO预报和9月最低值报告，并扩大SIPN2预报，以包括完全空间分辨率和新出现的冰异常月(10月至11月)。这项工作将直接与创建和使用阿拉斯加海冰预报的利益攸关方接触，并导致改善海冰周围的安全。SIPN2下的工作还将跟踪公众对海冰的认识和看法，通过可访问的报告、讨论和对非科学家和科学家都有用的公共数据来源来帮助提高理解。利益攸关方在研究过程中的参与可能会促进这项工作的产品从研究到业务的快速实施。

NSFGEO-NERC Collaborative Research: Advancing Predictability of Sea Ice: Phase 2 of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN2)The shrinking Arctic sea-ice cover has captured the attention of the world. A downward September trend has accelerated over the last decade, with the 10 lowest September sea-ice extents occurring in the last 10 years. An essentially ice-free Arctic during summer is expected by mid-century. Loss of the sea- ice cover has profound consequences for ecosystems and human activities in the Arctic, so there is an urgent need to advance sea-ice predictions in all seasons at both the pan-Arctic and regional scales. A better quantification of the role of oceanic heat and climate variations in the Pacific sector, new observational-based sea-ice products, and network activities will advance understanding of seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, the limits of this predictability, and the economic value of forecasts for stakeholders. The network supported by this grant will examine origins and impacts of extreme ocean surface warming in preconditioning the ice cover in the Pacific Arctic for continued major reductions in sea-ice extent and duration. A key finding that emerged from the earlier Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) effort is that predictions of September sea-ice extent tend to have less skill in extreme years that strongly depart from the trend line. The objective of proposed research under Phase 2 of SIPN (SIPN2) is to improve forecast skill through adopting a multi-disciplinary approach that includes modeling, new products, data analysis, scientific networks, and stakeholder engagement. This grant will: Investigate the sensitivity of subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice predictability in the Alaska Arctic to variations in oceanic heat and large- scale atmospheric forcing using a dynamical model Community Earth System Model (NCAR CESM) and statistical forecasting tools, focusing on spatial fields in addition to total extent summaries; Assess the accuracy of Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) submissions based on methodology and initialization; Develop new observation-based products for improving sea-ice predictions, including sea-ice thickness, surface roughness, melt ponds, and snow depth; Evaluate the socio-economic value of sea-ice forecasts to stakeholders who manage ship traffic and coastal village resupply in the Alaska Sector, and engage the public in Arctic climate and sea-ice prediction through blog exchanges, accessible SIO reports, bi-monthly webinars, and by making public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike; and Continue and evolve network activities to generate SIO forecasts and reporting for September minima as in SIPN and expand SIPN2 forecasts to include full spatial resolution and emerging ice-anomaly-months (October - November). This work will directly engage stakeholders that create and use sea-ice forecasts in Alaska and lead to improved safety around sea ice. Work under SIPN2 will also track public awareness and perceptions regarding sea ice, helping to raise understanding through accessible reports, discussions, and public data sources useful to non-scientists and scientists alike. Stakeholder engagement during the research process will potentially facilitate rapid research-to-operations implementation of the products of this work.