Quantify the roles of the different key factors in the Houston flood during Hurricane Harvey

沿海洪灾威胁着全球环境的可持续性。最近，飓风哈维在德克萨斯州哈里斯县引发了灾难性的洪水和相关损失。特别是，休斯顿西北部地区被巴克和阿迪克斯水库的水淹没。减轻沿海城市洪水的影响依赖于解开一系列因素下的水文过程，即城市化，天气预报和水库流量调节。因此，本项目的研究目标是量化不同关键因素在飓风哈维期间发生的休斯顿地区洪水中的作用。具体的研究目标是：1）量化城市化在加剧洪水中的作用; 2）评估降水预报的技巧，及其对径流预测的影响; 3）调查事件期间水库流量调节的有效性。研究将利用一个高性能的水文模型，其中包括一个新实施的水库组件。使用这种集成建模框架的研究将有助于缩小现有的知识差距，并将改善未来极端洪水事件下的决策。首先，额外的径流归因于城市发展在哈维将通过比较水文模型输出下的一系列历史土地覆盖进行量化。其次，将评估业务降水和径流预报的性能，并将量化其相关的不确定性。第三，水文模型的水库模块将在各种土地覆盖和降水预测情景下进行优化，以便更好地了解各种不确定性下的流量调节。此外，该项目不仅试图解开城市化、天气预报和水库流量调节之间复杂的相互作用，还寻求在组合的不确定性中的解决方案。研究方法和结果的目标不仅有利于休斯顿地区未来的决策，而且还为世界沿着其他大城市的洪水减灾带来了见解。 教育目标是通过让从K-12到本科生和研究生的各级学生参与，加强环境可持续性教育。这些活动将集中在哈维飓风的不同方面，并将根据年龄和教育水平吸引学生。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Coastal flooding threatens environmental sustainability globally. Recently, Hurricane Harvey unleashed catastrophic flooding and associated losses on Harris County, Texas. In particular, the area north-west of Houston was overwhelmed by the release of water from the Barker and Addicks Reservoirs. Mitigation of the impacts of coastal urban flooding relies on untangling the hydrological processes under a series of factors - namely, urbanization, weather prediction, and reservoir flow regulation. Therefore, the research goal of this project is to quantify the roles of the different key factors in the Houston area flooding that occurred during Hurricane Harvey. The specific research objectives are: 1) Quantifying the role of urbanization in exacerbating the flooding; 2) Evaluating the skill of precipitation forecasting, and its impact on streamflow prediction; and 3) Investigating the effectiveness of reservoir flow regulation during the event.The research will take advantage of a high-performance hydrological model with a newly implemented reservoir component. The research using this integrated modeling framework will help close existing knowledge gaps, and will improve future decision making under extreme flood events. First, the additional streamflow attributed to urban development during Harvey will be quantified by comparing hydrological model outputs under a series of historical land covers. Second, the performance of the operational precipitation and streamflow forecasts will be evaluated, and their associated uncertainties will be quantified. Third, the reservoir module of the hydrological model will be optimized under various land cover and precipitation forecast scenarios, such that a better understanding about flow regulation under various uncertainties can be gained. Furthermore, the project not only seeksto untangle the complex interactions among urbanization, weather prediction, and reservoir flow regulation, it also seeks solutions amidst combined uncertainties. The research approaches and results are target to not only benefit future decision making in the Houston area, but also to bring insight for mitigating floods in other megacities along the world's coastlines. The educational objective is to enhance environmental sustainability education through involving students at all levels - from K-12 to undergraduate and graduate students. These activities will center on different aspects of Hurricane Harvey, and will engage students according to age and education level.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.