CRISP 2.0 Type 2: Collaborative Research: Integrated Socio-Technical Modeling Framework to Evaluate and Enhance Resiliency in Islanded Communities (ERIC)

最近在沿海热带和亚热带地区发生的灾难性事件突出表明了关键基础设施系统相互依赖的影响，以及这些相互依赖如何导致有形资产的故障，从而对这些地区社区的健康和社会经济福祉产生不利影响。岛屿社区被定义为偏远、自给自足的地区，其物理（或网络）连通性低或时断时续，特别容易受到自然灾害的影响。最近的一个例子是波多黎各岛的特殊情况，该岛位于飓风玛丽亚的直接路径上，生命线基础设施几乎完全瘫痪。这一事件还说明了极端事件如何加剧了偏远或孤立社区往往存在的地方性物质、社会和经济脆弱性。在飓风玛丽亚之前和之后，相关的级联影响清楚地证明了我们对这些复杂的工程、物理和人类系统中的风险的预测知识和准备程度有限。这表明迫切需要制定科学和社会框架和方法，使岛屿社区能够评估其目前对极端气候事件的准备情况，并通过多方利益攸关方参与进程和工程分析，评估和实施替代措施，以提高这些社区的复原力。以公共关系为案例研究，这个关键的弹性相互依赖的基础设施系统和流程（CRISP）项目将开发一个数据驱动的建模框架，用于理解复杂的物理和社会脆弱性，以及可能导致基础设施系统几乎完全失败的相互依赖性。将解决的研究问题包括：a）社会经济稳定性、治理和基础设施的基线条件如何影响极端天气条件下相互依赖的关键基础设施系统的性能和弹性？B）需要哪些知识和方法来指导岛屿社区加强系统复原力和恢复的战略？c）如何让专家和利益相关者参与并了解如何提高弹性和有效的故障缓解策略？实现这些目标的计划是首先实施一个数据驱动的过程，收集人类的叙述作为社会数据和信息来源，以重建飓风玛丽亚之前、期间和之后的时间轴和经历。接下来，项目团队将开发一个基于多层配电网理论的集成建模和仿真框架。该框架将包括基于结构的评估结果，用于灾害期间和之后的基础设施行为建模。研究的重点将是电力、供水和通信系统的相互依存关系。一个目标是通过模拟，使用系统网络模型，地球物理数据和社区数据的组合来重新创建事件，以捕获级联故障的顺序和相应的社会影响，作为事件展开和事件后的恢复工作。项目小组力求对这一系统的系统有一定程度的了解，从而提出知情的解决办法和建议，在未来发生极端事件时，尽量减少不利影响、破坏、生命损失和痛苦。该研究建立在加勒比地区天气和气候过程的丰富专业知识，对当地关键基础设施的了解，采矿社区叙述的经验，以及在灾后重建具有复原力的社区的行之有效的方法，纽约和新泽西都会区的飓风桑迪。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值进行评估，被认为值得支持和更广泛的影响审查标准。

Recent catastrophic events in the coastal tropics and sub-tropics highlight the impact of the interdependencies of critical infrastructure systems and how those interdependencies cause failures of physical assets, leading to adverse impacts on the health and socio-economic wellbeing of the communities in those regions. Islanded communities, defined as remote, self-contained regions, with low or intermittent physical (or cyber) connectivity, are especially vulnerable to natural disasters. A recent example is the extraordinary case of the island of Puerto Rico (PR), in the direct path of Hurricane Maria, and the near total failure of lifeline infrastructures. This event also exemplifies how extreme events compound endemic physical, social and economic vulnerabilities often present in remote or isolated communities. The associated cascading impacts, prior to and after Hurricane Maria, are clear evidence of our limited knowledge and readiness to anticipate risks in these complex engineered, physical and human systems. This reveals the urgent need to develop scientific and social frameworks and methodologies by which islanded communities can assess their existing preparedness to extreme climatic events, and through a multi-stakeholder engagement process and engineering analysis, evaluate and implement alternative measures to enhance the resiliency of such communities. Using PR as the case study, this Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) project will develop a data-driven modeling framework for understanding the complex physical and social vulnerabilities, and interdependencies that can and have resulted in near total failure of infrastructure systems.The research questions that will be addressed include: a) How do socio-economic stability, governance and baseline conditions of infrastructure impact performance and resiliency of critical interdependent infrastructure systems in extreme weather conditions? b) What knowledge and methods are needed to guide strategies for enhancing system resiliency and restoration in islanded communities? c) How can experts and stakeholders be engaged and informed about enhancing resiliency and effective failure mitigation strategies? The plan to achieve these objectives is by first implementing a data-driven process of gathering human narratives as social data and a source of information to recreate the timeline and experience of Hurricane Maria, before, during and after the event. Next, the project team will develop an integrated modeling and simulation framework, based on multi-layer distribution network theory. This framework will include structural-based assessment results in the modeling of infrastructure behavior during and after a disaster. The focus of study will be on the interdependencies of the electrical power, water distribution and communications systems. An objective is to recreate, via simulation, the event using a combination of system network models, geophysical data, and community data, to capture the sequence of the cascading failures and the corresponding societal impact as the event unfolded and during post-event recovery efforts. The project team seeks to arrive at a level of understanding of this system of systems that will lead to informed solutions and recommendations that will minimize adverse impact, disruption, loss of life and suffering, in the face of future extreme events. The research builds on a wealth of expertise in weather and climate processes in the Caribbean, understanding of local critical infrastructure, experience in mining community narrative, and from proven methodologies for rebuilding resilient communities in post-Hurricane Sandy in the New York and New Jersey Metro Area.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.