Fingerprints analysis of extreme events caused by stratospheric sulfur injections (FASSI)

气候工程指的是一套广泛的方法和技术，旨在故意改变气候系统，以减轻气候变化的影响。在本研究中，我们将重点研究太阳辐射管理方法之一，硫酸盐注射。这个想法是通过减少吸收的太阳辐射和将太阳辐射反射回太空来减少全球净辐射强迫。FASSI计划的研究将集中在两个问题上：(I)平流层硫酸盐注入对极端气候的影响是什么；（II）这种影响需要多长时间才能被检测到，即在统计上与气候噪声区分开来。在调查中，检测和归因分析将基于有和没有硫酸盐注入的气候模拟。将得出平流层硫酸盐注入在极端气候条件下的指纹，以及对可能检测到指纹的时间跨度的估计。分析将集中在与社会高度相关的模式上，如印度季风的极端现象、中纬度风暴路径以及萨赫勒地区的干旱。这些结果可以用来告诉决策者，某些极端事件，如印度季风的失败，是否可能与气候工程活动有关。

Climate Engineering refers to a broad set of methods and technologies that aim to deliberately alter the climate system in order to alleviate the impacts of climate change. In this study we will focus on one of the solar radiation management methods, sulfate injection. The idea is reduce the global net radiative forcing by reducing the absorbed solar radiation and reflecting solar radiation back to space. The research intended in FASSI will focus on two questions: (I) what is the effect of stratospheric sulfate injection on climatic extremes and (II) how long will it take until such an effect will be detectable, i.e. statistically distinguishable from climate noise. For the investigation detection and attribution analysis will be used based on climate simulations with and without sulfate injection. A fingerprint of the stratospheric sulfate injection in terms of climatic extremes will be derived as well as an estimate on the timespan, on which the fingerprint may be detected. The analysis will focus on patterns, which are highly relevant for society such as extremes of the Indian monsoon and mid-latitude storm tracks as well as droughts in the Sahel zone. These results can be used to inform policy makers whether certain extreme events, such as a failure of the Indian monsoon, may be related to climate engineering activities.