Collaborative Research: P2C2--Elucidating the Drivers and Consequences of Changes in Atmospheric Rivers from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Present Day

本项目旨在研究大气河流（ARs）对平均气候状态和辐射强迫变化的响应。这将使用社区地球系统模型（CESM 2）的一组新的古气候模拟来实现，其目标是了解驱动过去，现在和未来AR响应的过程，并评估其对区域水文气候和生态系统的影响。研究人员计划用CESM 2进行八项不同的实验，其中冰盖，轨道配置，融水通量和二氧化碳浓度将自末次冰期以来独立变化。将实施AR跟踪算法，以客观地识别气候状态之间的AR，然后用于量化AR变化的分布、频率、强度和季节性特征及其对降水的影响。该项目有三个具体目标：1）开发一个强大的AR跟踪算法用于气候变化研究; 2）了解AR和气候系统强迫之间的关系; 3）量化AR变化对末次冰期-间冰期过渡期间区域水文气候的贡献。潜在的更广泛的影响包括更好地了解AR在气候系统中的作用。计划开展一项国际合作，开展一项正式的大气河流跟踪方法相互比较活动，并将由此产生的AR目录存档，供公众查阅。该项目支持培训一名研究生和一名博士后学者。此外，作为马萨诸塞州洛厄尔大学正在进行的一项计划的一部分，将为地区高中教师举办一个专业发展讲习班。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to investigate the response of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to changes in the mean climate state and radiative forcing. This will be accomplished using a new set of paleoclimate simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) with the goal to understand the processes that drive past, present and future ARs responses, and evaluate their impact on regional hydroclimates and ecosystems. The researchers plan to conduct eight different experiments with the CESM2 in which ice sheets, orbital configurations, meltwater fluxes and carbon dioxide concentrations will be varied independently since the last glacial maximum. An ARs tracking algorithm will be implemented to objectively identify ARs across climate states and then used to quantify the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonal character of ARs changes and their impact on precipitation. The project is organized about three specific objectives: 1) develop a robust AR tracking algorithm for use in climate change studies; 2) understand the relationships between ARs and climate system forcings; and 3) quantify the contribution of AR changes to regional hydroclimate over the last glacial-interglacial transition. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the role of ARs within the climate system. An international collaboration is planned to conduct an official Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison activity with the resulting AR catalogues being archived and made publicly available. The project supports the training of a graduate student and a Postdoctoral scholar. In addition, a professional development workshop for regional high school teachers will be organized as part of an ongoing program at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. A set of modules centered on the physics of the climate system and the interdisciplinary applications of climate science will be developed and made available to the workshop participants.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.