Bangladesh Delta: Assessment of the Causes of Sea-level Rise Hazards and Integrated Development of Predictive Modeling Towards Mitigation and Adaptation

孟加拉国位于孟加拉湾，地势低洼，是世界上人口最密集的国家之一，容易发生跨界季风性洪水，人为气候变化导致的更频繁和更强烈的气旋可能会加剧这种洪水。海平面上升，连同构造、泥沙负荷和地下水开采引起的陆地隆起/下沉，大大加剧了这些风险和孟加拉国沿海的脆弱性。我们建议为孟加拉国建立一个强大的贝尔蒙特挑战确定的地球系统分析和预测系统（ESAPS），以适应/减轻包括海平面上升在内的有害危害。我们将建立一个基于当代空间大地测量传感器的先进观测系统，以量化(1)海平面上升和陆地运动的原因及其强大的垂直基准联系，以及(2)控制孟加拉国沿海脆弱性的人类相互作用。这些知识将用于自然科学和社会科学框架的综合发展，采用强大的预测模型，以适应孟加拉国沿海地区的海平面上升和其他危害。我们的国际跨学科科学团队由自然和社会科学家组成，包括当地利益相关者，将利用该地区正在进行的环境和社会项目。我们的方法包括基于观测/实地调查的综合分析，以识别海平面上升和陆地运动及其在世纪时间尺度上的预测，社会经济分析，包括脆弱人口预测，微观适应，土地利用变化和社区适应能力，以及综合评估，包括情景分析，传播和决策支持服务在孟加拉国沿海。开发的创可贴ESAPS原型系统可运输到世界其他地区。我们的工作将对其他现有项目（如富布赖特、美国宇航局、美国国家科学基金会、ONR、美国国际开发署）产生影响并使其受益。该项目将培训学生、技术人员和社会工作者，他们将成为下一代当地利益相关者。

Bangladesh, a low-lying, one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, potentially aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. Sea-level rise, along with tectonic, sediment load and groundwater extraction induced land uplift/subsidence, have significantly exacerbate these risks and Bangladeshs coastal vulnerability. We propose to build a robust Belmont Challenge identified Earth System Analysis & Prediction System (ESAPS) for Bangladesh, to adapt/mitigate the detrimental hazards including sea-level rise. We will establish an advanced observation system based on contemporary space geodetic sensors to quantify (1) causes of sea-level rise and land motion and their robust vertical datum link, and (2) humaninteractions that governs coastal vulnerability in Bangladesh. This knowledge will be used for the integrated development of a natural and social science framework employing robust predictive modeling towards the adaption of sea-level rise and other hazards in coastal Bangladesh. Our international, cross-disciplinary science team, consists of natural and social scientists including local stakeholders, will leverage upon ongoing environmental and social projects in the region. Our approach includes observation/fieldwork based syntheses to discern sea-level rise and land motion and their projections at century timescales, socioeconomic analyses including vulnerable population projection, micro adaptation, land use change, and community adaptive capacity, and integrated assessment including scenario analysis, dissemination, and decision-support service in coastal Bangladesh.The developed BanD-AID ESAPS prototype system is transportable to other regions of the world. Our work will both leverage and benefit other existing projects (e.g., Fulbright, NASA, NSF, ONR, USAID). The project will train students, technicians and social workers who will be the next-generation local stakeholders.