DISES: Pathways and constraints to adaptation in coastal social-environmental systems

世界各地的沿海生态系统和社区受到日益多变的气候以及市场、政治和社会变化冲击的影响，包括当前的COVID-19大流行。该奖项将重点关注小规模渔业，这些渔业生产的海产品占每年消费海产品总量的三分之二，对数亿人的粮食安全和生计至关重要。该奖项的研究将阐明促进沿海社区和生态系统对全球变化的恢复能力的过程和条件。这一知识对于支持适应变化以及在风险和不确定性下作出有效决策至关重要。该研究将探讨粮食安全和社会稳定，为加州现行系统适应气候变化和市场冲击提供信息，并为学生、研究人员和公民建设能力，以应对国内和国际环境中的全球挑战。研究人员将结合海洋学和生态学实地研究，以及生物物理和生物经济模型，以促进对环境、社会和市场变化对海洋种群、渔业和沿海经济动态的作用的理解。具体而言，该奖项将涉及：(1)通过近岸海洋学、生态和渔业监测，加深对区域环境驱动因素、当地条件以及捕捞压力和模式变化如何影响复原力的理解；(2)通过统计分析和生物经济模型预测适应行动的结果、风险和效益；(3)通过对利益相关者的调查，评估不同适应途径的风险认知、制约因素和社会结果；(4)建立和检验适应能力理论（在风险和不确定性下支持决策的约束、偏好和信息），以确定适应能力是否具有情境特异性。行为经济学对社会驱动因素和制度的实地实验和分析将为沿海社会环境系统的适应策略和弹性，以及海洋使用者如何感知和处理风险、快速变化和不确定性提供新的见解。该项目将为世界各地沿海社区对气候、社会、市场和政治变化的适应和复原力提供信息，并将为参与式知识的共同生产及其在海洋和沿海管理和适应中的应用提供一个可推广的模式。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Coastal ecosystems and communities around the world are affected by an increasingly variable climate, and shocks from market, political and social change, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. This award will focus on small scale fisheries that produce two thirds of the seafood consumed annually and are critical to the food security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. The award’s research will illuminate the processes and conditions that promote the resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems to global change. This knowledge is crucial for supporting adaptation to change, and for effective decision making under risk and uncertainty. The research will explore food security and social stability, informing adaptation to climate change and market shocks in the California Current system, and building capacity for students, researchers and citizens to address global challenges in both national and international settings.Researchers will combine oceanographic and ecological field studies, and biophysical and bioeconomic models to advance understanding of the role of environmental, social and market change on the dynamics of marine populations, fisheries and coastal economies. Specifically the award will address: (1) the increase understanding of how regional environmental drivers, local conditions, and changes in fishing pressure and patterns affect resilience through nearshore oceanographic, ecological and fisheries monitoring; (2) forecast outcomes, risks and benefits of adaptive actions through statistical analyses and bioeconomic models; (3) assess risk perception, constraints and social outcomes of alternative adaptation pathways through surveys with stakeholders; and (4) build and test a theory of adaptive capacity (the constraints, preferences, and information used to support decision-making under risk and uncertainty) to determine whether adaptive capacity is context-specific. Behavioral economics field experiments and analyses of social drivers and institutions will provide new insights into adaptive strategies and the resilience of socio-environmental coastal systems, and how marine users perceive and deal with risk, rapid change, and uncertainty. The project will inform adaptation and resilience to climate, social, market and political change in coastal communities around the world, and will provide a generalizable model for participatory co-production of knowledge and its application to marine and coastal management and adaptation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.