Risk-Based Decision-Making for Terrorism and Infrastructure Security

该项目旨在开发随机模型，以预测恐怖主义和军事威胁造成的损害、伤亡和其他损失的可能性和程度。恐怖主义、安全和国防政策制定者需要强有力的概率风险评估，以优先保护或优化对建筑物、航空基础设施以及标志性建筑和大规模集会的保护。该项目的一个关键重点是对民用和加固基础设施进行恶意和意外爆炸爆炸加载。对安全风险和风险接受标准进行量化评估，将能够评估安全措施的效力，以提供社会可接受的具有成本效益的保护水平。

The project intends to develop stochastic models to predict the likelihood and extent of damages, casualties and other losses from terrorist and military threats. Terrorism, security and defence policy-makers need robust probabilistic risk assessments to prioritise or optimise the protection of buildings and aviation infrastructure, as well as iconic structures and mass gatherings. A key focus of the project is malevolent and accidental explosive blast loadings on civilian and hardened infrastructure. A quantitative assessment of security risks and risk acceptance criteria would allow the effectiveness of security measures to be assessed to provide cost-effective levels of protection that is acceptable to society.