Empirical and experimental analysis of land rental rates and farmland prices

我们将继续并扩展SP1以前的工作。本子项目的总体目标是通过实证和实验分析租赁率和农田价格。子项目包括四个工作包。在工作包1中，我们将在时空维度上扩展下萨克森州县域租金房价比的研究。我们研究了农业用地租金价格比的全面分布。因此，将农业普查中的农场水平数据（包括地租）和土地评估专家委员会收集的土地价格数据合并到一个空间网格上。使用地理位置、形状和规模的地理附加广义模型来模拟当地农业结构对租金-价格比分布的平均值和规模的影响。空间依赖关系由结构化的高斯-马尔可夫随机场项和非结构化的空间随机效应项来建模。在第二个工作包中，我们将运行一个离散选择实验来调查农民购买而不是租用农田的偏好。将包括在模型估计中的协变量包括，例如，农场-田地距离或田地大小。从政策角度来看，我们将调查更具限制性的《土地管理法》的影响，以及对投入物使用的额外限制对农民购买和租用农田的意愿的影响。此外，我们将开发一个实物期权方法基准，并测试该理论是否能够比净现值模型更好地解释实验观察到的租赁和购买决策。第三个工作包将与SP2共同开展，建立一个理论框架来调查农民在农业土地市场上的（非）投资行为。具体来说，我们的目标是应用实物期权理论，通过推导引发农场出售农田决策的价格触发因素，来揭示农业用地市场的供应动态。调查农业用地的供应是特别相关的，因为它可以被视为描述农业用地市场流动性的指标。在此过程中，我们仔细研究了流动性对农业土地市场有效运作的作用。最后，通过与SP2的合作，我们旨在了解租户和土地所有者在土地租金价格方面的议价能力。这里的目标是研究价格边际的议价过程，这是由于租户的支付意愿和土地所有者的接受意愿之间的差距造成的，这可能在稀薄的市场中出现。为此，将采用博弈论模型，它能够捕捉议价过程的潜在逻辑。议价过程的理论建模和实证分析有助于理解农地市场的市场力量。

We will continue and extend on the previous work of SP1. The general objective of this subproject is to empirically and experimentally analyse rental rates and farmland prices. The subproject comprises of four work packages.In work package 1 we will expand the study on the rent-price ratio on the county level in Lower Saxony in the spatio-temporal dimension. We study the full distribution of the rent-price ratio of agricultural land. Therefore, farm level data from the agricultural census (including land rents) and land price data gathered by expert committees for land evaluation are merged on a spatial grid. A geo-additive generalised model for location, shape and scale is used to model the effects of the local farming structure on both the mean and the scale of the rent-price ratio distribution. Spatial dependencies are modelled by structured Gaussian-Markov-Random-Field-terms and unstructured spatial random effect terms. In a second work package, we will run a Discrete Choice Experiment to investigate farmers’ preferences for buying instead of renting farmland. Covariates that will be included in the model estimation encompass, for example, the farm-field-distance or the field size. From a policy perspective, we will investigate the impact of a more restrictive Land Regulation Act, as well as additional restrictions regarding the use of inputs on farmers’ willingness to pay for buying and renting farmland. Furthermore, we will develop a real options approach benchmark and test if the theory is able to explain experimentally observed renting and buying decisions better than the net present value model. The third work package, which will be jointly carried out with SP2, sets up a theoretical framework to investigate farmer’s (dis)investment behaviour on agricultural land markets. Specifically, our objective is to apply the real options theory to unravel supply dynamics on agricultural land markets by deriving triggers in prices that initiate a farm’s decision to sell farmland. Investigating the supply of agricultural land is particularly relevant as it can be regarded as an indicator describing the liquidity of agricultural land markets. In doing so, we scrutinise the role of liquidity for agricultural land markets to work efficiently.Finally, in collaboration with SP2, we aim to understand both tenants and landowners bargaining power over land rental prices. The objective here is to examine the bargaining process over a price margin, which results from a gap between tenant’s willingness to pay and landowner’s willingness to accept, which may arise in thin markets. For this purpose, game theory models will be adopted, which are able to capture the underlying logic of bargaining processes. The theoretical modelling and empirical analysis of bargaining processes will contribute to the understanding of market power on agricultural land markets.