A Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Catchment Scale Climate Change Impact Assessment

我们提出了一个集水区尺度的气候变化影响评估框架，该框架既可以评估集水区产量的变化，也可以改进管理政策以减轻可能的影响。一个关键目标是表示模拟水流中的全部不确定性，从而能够将当前政策与气候变化条件下的政策进行基于风险的比较。鉴于这项研究对气候变化情景下水资源的重要性，该提案已被列入ARC的研究优先事项1：“环境可持续发展的澳大利亚”，具体优先目标是“水-关键资源”和“应对气候变化和变异”。

We propose a framework for climate change impact assessment at the catchment scale, that can both assess the change in catchment yield, as well as refine management policies to mitigate likely impacts. A key aim is to represent the full uncertainty in the simulated streamflow, thus enabling a risk-based comparison of current policies with those for climate change conditions. Given the importance of this research to the availability of water under a climate change scenario, this proposal has been listed under the ARC's Research Priority 1: 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', with the specific priority goals being 'Water - A Critical Resource', and 'Responding to climate change and variability'.