An Empirical Analysis on Economic Impacts of "Informatization"

在本项目中，我们试图构建一个从宏观经济角度描述信息化过程的理论框架，并尝试对其进行实证分析。在分析中，首先对信息商品进行了界定，然后在此基础上对信息产业进行了界定。并利用投入产出表的数据，计算了日本经济中信息产业、信息辅助产业和非信息产业的规模。从计算结果可以看出，信息产业的规模比宣传的要小得多（例如，1985年信息产业和信息配套产业的份额之和仅占全部增加值的13%）。这种说法部分正确，部分不正确。这在一定程度上是正确的，因为至少在20世纪80年代中期，与制造业相比，信息产业的规模很小，尽管它的增长率很高。因此，我们不能指望信息产业在这个时候更多地充当宏观经济的引擎。这与信息产业能否在未来成为主导产业密切相关。同时，在信息产业的产出作为中间产品出售给其他产业的意义上，上述结论是不成立的。而信息产业的产出主要用于提高生产效率（工厂自动化）和办公效率（办公自动化）。因此，为了正确地评估信息经济的规模，我们必须考虑内部（组织间）信息部门。为了评价信息经济的规模，我们引入内部信息部门的主要原因是，由于各种原因，许多信息活动都是在组织内部进行的。例如，许多公司为自己的计算机系统生产计算机软件，而且，公司的最高机密从来不会在公司之外处理。但是引入内部信息部门给投入产出表的计算带来了一个非常困难的问题。这是因为内部信息部门在组织内部进行信息活动，这些活动没有得到市场的评价。我们在许多假设的基础上对内信产业的规模进行了评估。结果最显著的特点是，内部信息产业的生产总值（117.2万亿日元）远远大于信息产业的生产总值（26.8万亿日元），这是我们这次计算中最重要的事实发现之一。当然，这是我们研究的第一步。并且，我们希望在同一框架内的国际比较将给我们带来非常富有成效的结果。少

In this project, we made an effort to build a theoretical framework to describe Informatization process from macroeconomic point of view, and tried to analyze it empirically.In the analysis, first of all, we defined Information Goods and then Information Industry on the basis of the definition. And, by making use of data of Input-Output table, we calculated the size of information Industry, Information Supporting Industry and Non-Information Industry in Japan's economy.From the results of calculations, we may reach a conclusion that the size of information industry is much smaller than propagated (For instance, the sum of shares of information industry and information supporting industry is only 13% of total value added in 1985). This is partly true and partly not true.It is partly true in the sense that, at least in the middle of the 1980s, the size of information industry is small, compared with that of manufacturing industry, although its growth rate was high. So, we cannot expect i … More nformation industry too much as engine of the macroeconomy at this moment. This is closely related with the problem whether information industry will be able to become a leading industry in future or not.At the same time, the above conclusion is not true in the sense that the output of information industry are sold as intermediate goods to other industries. And the output ofinformation industry are mainly used for increase in efficiency of production (Factory Automation) and office work (Office Automation). Therefore, in order to evaluate the size of information economy properly, we have to consider the Inner-(Inter-organizational) information sector.The main reason why we should introduce Inner-information sector in order to evaluate the size of information economy is that many information activities are performed within the organization for various reasons. For example, many companies produce computer software for their own computer system, and moever, top secret of the company is never processed outside the company. But introducing Inner-information sector brings a very difficult problem for the calculation of Input-Output Table. It is because, as Inner-information sector performs information activities within the organization, such activities are not evaluated by the market.We evaluated the size of Inner-information sector on the basis of many assumptions. And the most striking feature of the result is that the total product of Inner-information sector (117.2 trillion yen) is much lager than that of information industry (26.8 trillion yen), which is one of the most important fact findings of our calculation this time.Of course, this is the first step of our research. And, we hope that international comparison within the same framework will give us very fruitful results. Less