Economic Analysis of Oil Exploration by q-Theory

石油和天然气的开采活动从公司的角度来看可以被视为投资。首先，本研究通过将企业价值与相关资产价值相关联，建立了企业价值评估模型。特别是，本研究探讨了公司的基础储备价值如何受到原油价格的影响。其次，本研究使用公司数据进行了实证研究。本文选取了20家U.S.energy公司，研究了采掘性投资与公司价值或现金流之间的关系。20世纪80年代U.S.energy公司的特点是更多地通过并购而不是采掘投资来收购储备和其他资产。实证部分探讨了并购、纵向一体化与原油价格之间的关系。本文的研究结果表明，石油储备的价值与原油价格正相关，特别是外汇储备的价值。本文还表明，在严格的价格管制下，纵向一体化提高了企业的价值，从而促进了采掘性投资。第三，本文尝试以俄罗斯能源企业为例进行实证研究。由于苏联解体，数据库中断，这使得尝试失败。我计划分析俄罗斯石油工业，而不是继续这一研究方向。这将在1997年左右完成，届时我将成功收集数据。

Extractive activities of oil and natural gas can be regarded as investment from the point of firms. One needs to investigate the relationship between the value of the firm and its values of assets including reserves underground.First, this study builds a valuation model of the firm by relating it to the values of underlying assets. In particular, this study examines how the value of reserves underlying the firms are affected by crude oil priceSecond, this study conducts an empirical research by using corporate data. By choosing 20 some U.S.energy firms, I investigate how extractive investment is related to the value of the firms or cash flow. U.S.energy firms in the 1980s are characterized by the acquisitions of reserves and other assets more through M&A than extractive investment. The empirical part investigates how M&A,vertical integration, and crude oil price are related. I show that the value of reserves are positively related to crude oil price, particular of foreign reserves. I also show that vertical integration under the tight price regulation enhances the value of the firm, hence promotes extractive investment.Third, this study sttempts empirical studies using Russian energy firms. Due to the collapse of the USSR,data base was discontinued, which makes the attempt fail. In stead of pursuing this line of research, I plan to analyze the Russian oil industry with focusing on more general profile. This will be completed around 1997 when I successfully gather data.