Fertility Decline in Hokkaido -Design of System Dynamics Model for the Declining Regional Fertility

本研究的目的是弄清北海道生育率下降的趋势和决定因素，并设计包含人口、社会文化和经济因素的系统动力学模型，主要研究成果如下：2003年，利用人口普查、生命统计等的时间序列和定期数据，分析了总生育率（TFR）的趋势和人口决定因素，并与日本其他都道府县比较，确定了北海道生育率下降的人口特征。对北海道的生育率进行因子分析表明，低婚生育率和低已婚妇女比例是导致生育率水平低于国家标准的主要原因。2004年，我们分析了不同年龄段初婚率和不同年龄段已婚生育率的社会经济决定因素，并确定了影响不同年龄段初婚率和已婚生育率的社会经济因素， ...更多信息 北海道最近生育率下降的经济特征。这是通过对《日本人口动态统计》、总务省统计局都道府县社会指标和其他来源中的社会经济横截面数据进行多元线性回归分析来完成的。北海道显示出男性人口中大学毕业生的比例相对较高，劳动力集中在服务业部门。2005年，我们开发了包含人口学、社会文化和经济因素的北海道生育率下降的系统动力学模型原型。它是以北海道为核心的札幌的生育率和人口动态的队列模型。这是通过使用多重线性时间序列回归分析的女性婚姻生育率和女性的初婚率与高中毕业生和服务业部门的劳动力在男性人口中的比例。我们可以成功地再现1965年至2000年札幌的生育率下降。少

The purpose of this research was to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors.The researchworks and the important findings were :In 2003, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. Factor analysis of TFR of Hokkaido showed the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factors have almost same weight on low fertility.In 2004, we analyzed the socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-econ … More omic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. Hokkaido showed a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socio-economic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level.In 2005, we developed the prototype of system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. It was the cohort model of fertility and population dynamics in Sapporo, as the core of Hokkaido. This was done by using multiple linear time series regression analysis of the female marital fertility rates and the female first marriage rates with the proportion of high school graduates and the labor force in the service industry sector among the male population. We could successfully reproduce the fertility decline in Sapporo from 1965 to 2000. Less