Prevention of Moral Hazard and the Financial System in the 21st Century

本研究基于这样一种观点，即预防道德风险对于应对金融危机至关重要，因为解决问题的财政成本不断增加。金融市场中的道德风险是全球普遍存在的问题，特别是在信息技术的飞速发展促使金融市场放松管制之后。我们对近年来世界各地金融危机的共同原因、现象和补救措施进行了广泛的研究，发现在监管制度变革的过程中，由于相同的原因，金融危机的规模变得更大。防范道德风险是科普这一问题的关键。我们提出了有效和系统地抑制道德风险的政策措施。20世纪90年代以后，大型银行合并变得如此普遍，这一案例中发现了一种新型的道德风险。就财政成本而言，日本遭受了最严重的金融危机，而且拥有世界上最大的银行。我们发现了一个证据的道德风险，可能存在最近在日本的大型银行合并。这一发现对银行政策具有重要意义。我们提出了一些更健康的银行管理准则，以建立一个更健全的银行体系。

This research is based on the idea that prevention of moral hazard is crucial in dealing with financial crises that are ever increasing in terms of the size of fiscal cost to fix the problem. Moral hazard in the financial market is globally common, especially after deregulation of financial market which was prompted by a rapid progress in the IT technology. We have made an extensive research for the common causes, phenomena and the remedies of recent financial crises in different parts of the world.We have found that the scale of financial crises become larger due to the same causes during the process of change in regulatory system. The key to cope with the problem is a prevention of moral hazard. We have proposed policy measures to suppress moral hazard effectively and systematically. A new type of moral hazard is found in the case of mega-bank mergers that became so common after 1990s. Japan suffers from the most serious financial crises in terms of the fiscal cost, and has largest banks in the world as well. We found an evidence of moral hazard which may exists recent mega-bank mergers in Japan. This finding has a very important implication to the banking policy. We have proposed some guidelines for healthier bank management to establish a more sound banking system.