Analysis and Modeling of Night Express Bus User's Behavior

最近，日本的许多公交企业都陷入了财务困境。在这样的背景下，一些公交公司希望市内夜间快车服务成为扩大市场份额的有希望的政策之一。本研究旨在通过分类回归分析和判别函数分析，找出神府至大阪夜间快车的基本特征，并分析用户的意识和需求。一些经验观察表明，乘客数量的年偏差具有月型特征，这是由非工作日和短途用户形成的。结果还表明，座位舒适度、座位间空间和行李空间是用户评价的主要因素。采用聚类分析将用户的活动模式分为四类。此外，本研究旨在确定用户的评价与他们的活动和旅行模式之间的关系。在用户上下车的日子里进行了一项活动日记调查。考虑个人属性、旅行目的和调度条件等确定因素，对LISREL模型进行校准。

Recently, many bus businesses in Japan have been in financial difficulty. Under such a background, some bus companies expect an intra-city night express bus service to be one of the promising policies to expand their market share. This study aims to identify the basic characteristics of night express bus between Kofu and Osaka and analyze users' consciousness and needs using a categorical regression analysis and a discriminating function analysis. Some empirical observations indicate that the annual deviations of the number of passengers are characterized as a monthly pattern, which is formed by non-workdays and excursion users. They also show that comfort of bus seat, space between seats, and baggage-space are regarded as a principal factor for user's evaluation.A cluster analysis was applied to classify user's activity pattern into four groups. Also, this study aims to identify relationship between the users' evaluation and their activity & travel patterns. An activity diary survey was conducted on the days when users riding on and getting off the bus. A LISREL model is calibrate considering determining factors such as individual attributes, the purpose of travel and scheduling conditions.