Study on air pollution exposure map and its evaluation on health risk in EastAsia

在日本的大城市中，由于各种规定，工业部门的空气污染物排放量大大减少。然而，由于办公、家庭和交通部门的能源消耗增加，城市地区的PM10和NO_2污染并没有完全克服。另一方面，在中国的特大城市，空气污染极其严重，因为它们不仅经历了各行业基于能源消耗的污染物排放的快速增长，而且还存在各种自然排放，如北方地区的土壤粉尘（“黄沙”）和南方地区的生物质燃烧。对于这些不同条件下的亚洲特大城市大气环境，建立一个能够预测未来不同大气污染控制情景下空气污染浓度场的系统，评估空气污染场对健康的影响，并最终比较健康损害和排放控制的成本，将具有重要的意义。措施。在本研究中，为了达到上述最终目标，主要进行了以下调查：(1) 2001年3月建立了一个全球尺度的气溶胶输送模型，并进行了为期一个月的模拟，以评估东亚特大城市的自然和人为排放源的贡献；(2)中国城市和日本城市（东京和大阪）的SPM浓度对比得到了很好的复制，中国北方城市的土壤粉尘贡献很大，中国西南城市的生物质燃烧影响显著。(3)首次明确了东南亚特大城市雅加达的空气污染特征；(4)对日本名古屋市PM10浓度对过早死亡率的影响进行了统计分析，用于将空气污染水平与健康风险联系起来的评价；(5)建立了东亚地区城市地区排放强度估算方法，并将其应用于东亚地区。(6)利用估算的排放和运输/化学模型（NIM5/CMAQ），推导了东亚地区NOx和SOx的浓度和沉积分布。(7)中国和韩国的排放对日本臭氧的影响也被估计得较少

In Japanese mega-cities, emissions of air pollutants from industrial sector have been largely reduced because of various regulations. However, air pollution due to PM10 and NO_2 is not fully overcome in urban area because of increase in energy consumption from office, household, and transport sectors. On the other hand, in Chinese mega-cities, air pollution is extremely severe because they not only experience rapid increase of pollutants' emissions based on energy consumption in all sectors but also have various natural emissions such as soil dust ("yellow sand") in northern area and biomass burning in southern area of China. For atmospheric environment in Asian mega-cities under these different conditions, it will be valuable to establish a system which can predict future air pollution concentration fields under various air pollution control scenarios, can evaluate health effects by the air pollution fields, and can finally compare the costs between health damages and emission-control … More . measures. In this study, for the final goal described above, the followings were investigated : (1) a global scale aerosol transport model has been developed and applied for one month simulation in March, 2001 to evaluate contribution of natural and anthropogenic emission sources in mega-cities in Eastern Asia, (2) contrast of SPM concentrations in Chinese cities and Japanese cities (Tokyo and Osaka) has been well reproduced with high contribution of soil dust in northern Chinese cities and significant effects of biomass burning in southwestern Chinese cities. (3) in addition, air pollution characteristics in a mega-city in southeastern Asia, Jakarta, has been clarified at the first time, (4) a statistical analysis was made to evaluate effect of PM10 concentration on premature mortality rate in Nagoya, Japan for the use of evaluation connecting air pollution level to health risk, (5) a method for estimation of emission intensity in urban area has been developed and applied to eastern Asia, (6) by using the estimated emissions and transport/chemistry model (NIM5/CMAQ), distributions of NOx and SOx concentrations and depositions have been derived for east Asia., (7) effect of emissions in China and Korea on ozone in Japan has been also estimated Less