Role of higher order beliefs in decision making: Inductive approach

该项目的成果可分为理论成果和实验经济成果。在理论生产中，我们提出了归纳博弈论的动态逻辑框架。此外，我们还研究了决策者获取信息的差异对决策的影响以及社会福利的变化。在实验性经济生产中，我们研究受试者如何通过他们的经验和认知能力来预期资产价格。这是理论产品在实验性资产市场上的应用。结果发现，在认知能力测试中得分较高的受试者对策略不确定性的影响更大。

The productions of this project are classified into either theoretical ones and experimental economic ones. In theoretical productions, we propose a framework of dynamic logic for inductive game theory. In addition, we study how the difference of information decision makers obtain makes an impact on decision making and how the social welfare varies.In experimental economic productions, we study how subjects expect asset prices through their experiences and cognitive abilities. This is an application of the theoretical products for experimental asset markets. As a result, we found the subjects who get higher score in a cognitive ability test make a greater impact on strategic uncertainty.