Statistical Modelling of Labor Market Processes in Misclassified Administrative Labor Market Data

多年来，对德国劳动力市场政策的分析一直是研究人员和政治家的高度兴趣。然而，在一些情况下，结果是相互矛盾的，或者忽略了重要的方面。本研究项目采用最近开发的灵活的估计，考虑到数据质量问题。在我们的应用程序中，我们使用德国就业研究所（IAB），纽伦堡和德国联邦养老保险，维尔茨堡的管理个人数据。这些数据中的数据问题通常与调查数据中的错误具有不同的性质。通过与项目合作，我们开发并实施了针对失业持续时间和劳动力市场转型的适当统计模型，这些模型还考虑到了IAB数据和德国养老金系统数据的具体问题。本项目侧重于方法的应用和实施。因此，我们的分析将为理解德国的微观和宏观劳动力市场过程提供新的见解。我们将从经验中得出德国劳动力市场政策的建议。

Since many years the analysis of labor market policies in Germany is of high interest for researchers and politicians alike. Results are, however, in several cases contradictory or ignore important aspects. This research project applies recently developed flexible estimators that take into account data quality problems. In our applications we use German administrative individual data of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg and the German federal pension insurance, Würzburg. Data problems in these data often have a different nature than errors in survey data. In cooperation with projects we develop and implement appropriate statistical models for unemployment duration and labor market transitions which also take into account the specific problems of the IAB data and the data from the German pension system. This project focuses on the application and the implementation of methods. Our analysis will therefore provide new insights to the understanding of micro- and macroeconomic labor market processes in Germany. We will derive empirically founded recommendations for labor market policy in Germany.