Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire

干燥的森林燃料是大火的前兆。这项研究的目的是首次开发一种模型，以可靠地预测活燃料(如灌木和树木的叶子和细枝)的水分含量。这将通过结合(I)来自卫星的活燃料水分含量估计、(Ii)土壤湿度预测和(Iii)植物对土壤干燥的生理反应来实现。对活燃料水分含量的预测将为森林火灾风险提供早期预警系统。这些预测还将有助于改进对规定燃烧的规划：如果燃料太干，就有烧伤逃逸的风险，反之，如果燃料太湿，就有燃烧达不到目标的风险。

Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts of live fuel moisture content will deliver an early warning system of the risk of bushfires. These forecasts will also facilitate improved planning of prescribed burns: if fuels are too dry there is a risk of burns escaping, conversely, if fuels are too wet there is a risk that burns will fail to meet objectives.