Developing a novel Climate change Risk Assessment Framework for cultural heritage in Turkey (CRAFT)- Phase II

有明确的迹象表明，世界各地的气候模式正在发生变化，气候变化被认为是人类及其文化遗产面临的最大威胁。联合国可持续发展目标（SDG）13旨在“采取紧急行动应对气候变化及其影响”，其中第一个目标是“加强所有国家应对气候相关危害和自然灾害的复原力和适应能力”。此外，减少灾害风险是社会和经济发展的一个组成部分，对于未来的可持续发展至关重要。《2030年联合国可持续发展议程》承认并重申了减少灾害风险的迫切需要。洪水和山体滑坡是土耳其最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。洪水对土耳其的影响在该国的主要城市严重。伊斯坦布尔（土耳其最大城市，拥有1500万居民）及其联合国教科文组织世界遗产历史地区最近因气候变化导致的强烈降雨而频繁遭受洪水。土耳其马尔马拉地区2009年8月至9月发生的严重洪灾被归类为大于500年一遇的事件。伊斯坦布尔老城中心（历史半岛）的许多地方被洪水淹没。历史悠久的半岛还在2010年12月、2017年7月、2018年2月和2019年8月遭受了几次大洪水。近年来，暴雨造成的洪水事件比过去更频繁。2019年致命的洪水、泥石流引发的山体滑坡以及随后的潮湿问题对文化遗产造成了重大的结构性破坏;特别是小哈吉亚索非亚和阿希萨莱比清真寺CRAFT的第一阶段解决了伊斯坦布尔文化遗产洪水和山体滑坡易感性测绘的迫切需求。我们在伊斯坦布尔的历史半岛确定了150处可能受到洪水和山体滑坡危害的文化遗产。提出了一种灾害评估指标。我们已经认识到损失的不可避免性，气候和环境变化的影响可能导致一些古迹的保护和永久化是不可持续的。我们已经确定了两个需要解决的问题，以制定一个有效的框架，评估气候对伊斯坦布尔文化遗产的影响：（1）不同利益相关者和政府机构之间的有效沟通和互动（2）人类活动放大了伊斯坦布尔的洪水风险，有必要提高公众对文化遗产和相关风险的认识。因此，在该项目的第二阶段，我们侧重于两个方面的活动：（1）提高公众意识和（2）创建“伊斯坦布尔遗产论坛”，这是一个保护遗产的平台，旨在将该项目的成果扩大到项目时间轴之外。IHF将由当地社区和机构的代表组成。

There are clear indications of shifts in climatic patterns all around the world and climate change is considered the greatest threat facing humanity and its cultural heritage. UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 aims to "take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact" where the first target is stated as "Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries". Furthermore, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is an integral part of social and economic development and is essential if development is to be sustainable for the future. The 2030 UN Agenda for Sustainable Development recognises and reaffirms the urgent need to reduce the risk of disasters. Flooding and landslides are one of the most destructive types of natural disasters in Turkey. Flood impacts in Turkey are felt severely in major cities of the country. Istanbul (the largest city in Turkey with 15 million inhabitants) and its UNESCO World Heritage historical areas have recently suffered from frequent floods as a result of intense rainfalls under a changing climate. The severe floods of August-September 2009 in the Marmara region of Turkey were categorised as an event greater than the 500-year return period. Many parts of the old city centre (Historic Peninsula) of Istanbul were flooded. The Historic peninsula also suffered from several major floods in December 2010, July 2017, February 2018 and August 2019. Heavy rains cause flooding events more frequently in recent years than in the past. The deadly 2019 floods, rainfall-triggered landslides, and the subsequent moisture problems have resulted in significant structural damages to cultural heritage; in particular Small HagiaSofia and Ahi Çelebi Mosque The first phase of CRAFT addressed the urgent need for flooding and landslide susceptibility mapping of cultural heritage in Istanbul. We have identified 150 cultural heritage places in the Historical Peninsula of Istanbul which could be endangered by hazards of floods and landslides. An index for damage assessment has been developed. We have recognised the inevitability of loss, where the impacts of climate and environmental change may lead to the conclusion that the conservation and perpetuation of some monuments are unsustainable. We have identified two issues that need to be addressed in order to develop an effective framework for assessing climate impact on cultural heritage in Istanbul: (1) efficient communication and interaction between the different stakeholders and government agencies (2) human activities magnify the risks of floods in Istanbul and there is a need to raise public awareness on cultural heritage and the associated risks. Therefore, in the second stage of the project, we focus on two strands of activities: (1) raising public awareness and (2) creating "Istanbul Heritage Forum", a platform for the protection of the heritage aiming at extending the results of the project beyond the project timeline. The IHF will be formed by representatives of the local community, and institutions.