Developing a novel Climate change Risk Assessment Framework for cultural heritage in Turkey (CRAFT)

土耳其是世界上考古和文化最丰富的地方之一，有18个联合国教科文组织世界遗产，还有78个地点在暂定名单中。洪水和山体滑坡是土耳其最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。土耳其的主要城市都感受到了洪水的严重影响。伊斯坦布尔(土耳其最大的城市，有1500万居民)及其教科文组织世界遗产历史区最近由于气候变化下的强降雨而频繁遭受洪水。2009年8月至9月在土耳其马尔马拉地区发生的严重洪灾被归类为大于500年重现期的事件。这些洪灾造成31人死亡，35000人受灾，并在主要城市特别是伊斯坦布尔造成重大破坏，经济损失超过1亿美元。伊斯坦布尔老市中心(历史半岛)的许多地方被洪水淹没。历史悠久的半岛还在2010年12月、2017年7月、2018年2月和2019年8月遭受了几次大洪水。近年来，暴雨导致洪水事件的频率比过去更高。2019年致命的洪水、降雨引发的山体滑坡和随后的潮湿问题对文化遗产造成了严重的结构性破坏；特别是小HagiaSofia和Ahi圣埃勒比清真寺(当时正在修复过程中)。我们拟议的研究将涉及文化遗产对气候变化驱动的灾害的易感性测绘，特别关注伊斯坦布尔世界遗产地的洪水和山体滑坡灾害。然后，基于风险评估框架的映射将用于制定应对政策。在制定风险评估框架时，通常假定“遗产资产是不可替代的，遗产是‘不可再生资源’”。然而，将在该项目内制定的风险评估框架将需要认识到损失的必然性和可能性。我们将认识到损失的必然性，气候和环境变化的影响可能导致一些古迹的保护和永久不可持续的结论。损失的可能性可能意味着，在古迹被山体滑坡和洪水破坏的情况下，除了选择将遗产重建到灾难前的状态外，我们还应该考虑一种新的遗产形式，在修改后的古迹中反映灾难的历史。

Turkey is one of the most archaeologically and culturally rich places in the World with 18 UNESCO World Heritage sites, and an additional 78 locations in the tentative list. Flooding and landslides are one of the most destructive types of natural disaster in Turkey. Flood impacts in Turkey are felt severely in major cities of the country. Istanbul (the largest city of Turkey with 15 million inhabitants) and its UNESCO World Heritage historical areas have recently suffered from frequent floods as a result of intense rainfalls under a changing climate. The severe floods of August-September 2009 in the Marmara region of Turkey were categorised as an event greater than the 500-year return period. These floods caused 31 human losses, affected 35,000 people, and led to significant damages in major urban cities, particularly in Istanbul, with an economic loss more than $100 million. Many parts of the old city centre (Historic Peninsula) of Istanbul were flooded. The Historic peninsula had also suffered from several major floods in December 2010, July 2017, February 2018 and August 2019. Heavy rains cause flooding events more frequently in recent years than in the past. The deadly 2019 floods, rainfall-triggered landslides, and the subsequent moisture problems have resulted in significant structural damages to cultural heritage; in particular Small HagiaSofia and Ahi Çelebi Mosque (which was at that time in a restoration process). Our proposed research will involve susceptibility mapping of cultural heritage to climate-change driven hazards, with a particular focus on the floods and landslides hazards on Istanbul's world heritage sites. The mapping, based on a risk assessment framework, will then be used to develop a response policy. In developing risk assessment frameworks, it is the normal presumption that "heritage assets are irreplaceable and that heritage is a 'non-renewable resource' ". However, the risk assessment framework to be developed within this project will need to recognise the inevitability and potential of loss. We will recognise the inevitability of loss, where the impacts of climate and environmental change may lead to the conclusion that conservation and perpetuation of some monuments are unsustainable. The potential of loss could imply that, where monuments have been damaged by landslides and floods, in addition to the option of reconstructing the heritage to its pre-disaster condition, we should consider a new form of the heritage, where the history of disaster is reflected in the modified monument.