TEMPERATURE AND AIR POLLUTION EFFECTS ON HUMAN MORTALITY

这项研究将定量评估日常生活中 1980-1989年间美国的死亡率、气温和空气污染。 第一阶段将致力于获取、访问、聚合、 质量保证，以及对大量死亡的描述性分析， 天气和污染数据将在这项工作中进行评估。特定于城市 探索性、频域和时间序列回归分析将 然后在选定的美国城市子集上执行，然后执行更多 重点分析了美国最大的40个大都会地区。最后， 这些多个城市分析的结果将使用Meta- 分析方法，以得出对各自的稳健评估 温度和空气污染对美国死亡率的影响。 研究解决了流行病学中的几个关键研究需求 评估这些环境因素对人类健康的影响： 将使用的数据的高质量和全面性 研究将大大提高结果的普适性，而不是 过去研究的那些；这种分析将应用先进的时间序列 统计程序，以便适当地解决 这种序列数据中存在自相关和互相关；更多 温度效应的生物学上可信的规格将是 就业；这项分析涵盖了近一半的美国人口 超过10年，将提供第一次大规模的时间序列评估 环境空气污染和温度对美国死亡率的影响。AS 因此，这项研究提案代表了推动这两项工作的重要努力 流行病学方法和科学知识可用于 评估这些环境对人类健康的影响 压力。这些进步至关重要，因为我们的社会 对当前污染和未来可能的健康的担忧 全球变暖的影响。

This research will quantitatively evaluate the relationships among daily mortality, temperature, and air pollution in the U.S. during 1980-1989. The first phase will be devoted to the acquisition, access, aggregation, quality assurance, and descriptive analyses of the voluminous mortality, weather, and pollution data to be evaluated in this work. City-specific exploratory, frequency domain, and time series regression analyses will then be performed on a select subset of U.S. cities, followed by a more focused analysis of the 40 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Finally, the results of these multiple city analyses will be integrated using meta- analysis methods in order to derive robust assessments of the respective influences of temperature and air pollution on U.S. mortality.This proposed research addresses several key research needs in the epidemiologic assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental factors: the high quality and comprehensiveness of the data to be employed in this research will greatly improve the generalizability of the results versus those of past studies; this analysis will apply advanced time series statistical procedures in order to appropriately address the autocorrelations and crosscorrelations present in such serial data; more biologically plausible specifications of temperature effects will be employed, and; this analysis, encompassing nearly half the U.S. population over 10 years, will provide the first large-scale time series assessment of the effects of ambient air pollution and temperature on U.S. mortality. As such, this research proposal represents an important effort to advance both the epidemiologic methods and scientific knowledge available for the assessment of the human health consequences of these environmental stresses. These advances are of critical importance, given our society's concerns about present-day pollution and about possible future health impacts of global warming.