Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade

该项目旨在了解和预测全球贸易对土地使用和生物多样性的影响，国际贸易的增长增加了对直接或间接来自土地的商品的需求，从而增加了贸易介导的土地使用。对贸易影响和机会的准确预测将使政府能够通过明智的规划和监管来最大限度地提高生态和经济效益，并将影响降到最低，但这种分析并不存在。该项目旨在通过改进和整合可计算的全球平衡模型以及土地使用和生态模型来促进贸易政策评估，以更好地评估贸易的后果。

This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but such analyses do not exist. This project expects to advance trade policy evaluation by improving and integrating computable global equilibrium models and land-use and ecological models to better characterise consequences of trade.