U.S. APPREHENSION POLICY AND ILLEGAL MEXICAN MIGRANTS

边境管制和逮捕活动是联合国 1986年移民改革和控制法案，但它仍然是最少的 对改革政策进行了调查。 的总体目标 这个项目是为了了解墨西哥的经济计算是如何 美国的无证移民受到美国政策的影响 通过改变墨西哥和美国的经济状况， 逮捕无证墨西哥移徙者对 美国将使用移民历史数据进行审查， ENEFNEU调查。 将讨论三个具体问题。 首先， 在任何时候逮捕移徙者都是对再移徙的一种威慑 等会儿再谈？第二，在边境逮捕一名移民， 目前的移民行为？第三，相对经济条件如何， 美国减轻恐惧的影响将对假设进行检验 使用持续时间分析的标准人口统计技术。 具体来说，一个多事件、多状态竞争风险模型 将被用来估计恐惧的相对影响， 两国经济状况的变化对实际和 希望在美国停留的时间长度和频率 迁移 分析结果将用于探讨 对非法劳动力的总供应的逮捕政策， 美国的

Border control and apprehension activity represents a major thrust of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, but it remains the least investigated aspect of the reform policies. The overall objective of this project is to understand how the economic calculations of Mexican undocumented migrants in the United States are influenced by U.S. policy and by changing economic conditions in Mexico and the U.S. The dynamic effects of the apprehension of undocumented Mexican migrants to the United States will be examined using migration history data from the ENEFNEU survey. Three specific questions will be addressed. First, does apprehending a migrant at any time act as a deterrent to remigration later? Second, how does apprehending a migrant at the border alter current migration behavior? Third, how do relative economic conditions in the U.S. mitigate the effects of apprehension? Hypotheses will be tested using the standard demographic techniques of duration analysis. Specifically, a multiple episode, multiple state competing risk model will be used to estimate the relative effects of apprehension and changing economic conditions in the two countries on the actual and desired length of stay in the United States and on the frequency of migration. Results from the analysis will be used to explore the impact of apprehension policy on the aggregate supply of illegal labor in the United States.