UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC): PROGRAMME GRANT: Long term dynamics of interdependent infrastructure systems

英国和全球发达经济体的国家基础设施(NI)系统(能源、交通、水、废物和ICT)面临严峻挑战。2009年科学和技术理事会(CST)关于英国国家创新的报告确定了严重的脆弱性、能力限制和一些国家创新组件即将使用寿命结束的问题。它还突显出英国基础设施供应安排的严重碎片化。迫切需要减少基础设施的碳排放，应对未来人口、社会和生活方式的变化，并建立对气候变化日益加剧的影响的复原力。如果这一转变NI的过程要有效进行，同时将相关风险降至最低，就需要以一种长期的、跨部门的方法来理解一系列可能的未来下的NI表现。形成这种战略方法基础的系统分析系统还不存在--这个跨学科的研究计划将提供它。英国基础设施过渡研究联盟的目标是开发和演示新一代系统模拟模型和工具，为NI的分析、规划和设计提供信息。这项研究将在国家范围内处理能源、运输、水、废物和信通技术系统，开发新的方法来分析这些系统的性能、风险和相互依存关系。它将提供一个虚拟环境，我们将在其中测试国家创新的长期投资战略，并了解替代战略在政策约束方面的表现，例如供应的可靠性和安全性、成本、碳排放以及对人口和气候变化的适应能力。该研究计划围绕四个主要挑战构建：1.在不确定的未来，基础设施的能力和需求如何平衡？我们将制定方法，在广泛的技术、社会经济和气候未来下，以兼容的方式对国家创新系统的能力、需求和相互依存进行建模。因此，我们将提供必要的工具，以确定可持续地平衡能力和需求的强有力的战略。基础设施故障的风险是什么？我们如何调整NI以使其更具弹性？我们将通过建立NI的网络模型并分析故障对人民和经济的后果来分析相互依赖的基础设施故障的风险。将利用有关主要脆弱性和风险的信息来确定调整基础设施系统以降低未来风险的方法。基础设施系统如何演变并与社会和经济互动？我们将从理想化的模拟开始，逐步扩大到全国范围，开发有关基础设施、社会和经济长期演变的新模型。我们将使用模拟模型来演示基础设施供应的替代长期未来，以及它们可能如何实现。从长远来看，英国应该采取什么样的战略来综合提供国家创新服务？我们将与政府和行业中一批杰出的项目合作伙伴合作，使用我们的新方法为英国国家创新系统开发和测试替代战略，为向可持续发展过渡建立一个以证据为基础的案例。我们将分析必要的治理安排，以确保这一过渡在实践中能够实现。计划补助金提供机会，与政府和行业的主要合作伙伴灵活合作，在五年内以持续的方式应对对国家具有重要意义的研究挑战。我们的雄心壮志是，通过开发新一代工具，与我们的政府和行业合作伙伴合作，我们将在英国对NI提供进行一场战略分析的革命，同时成为公认的新颖性、研究卓越和影响的国际标志性计划。

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.