Long-term Trajectories of Crime in the UK

这项资助是在早期esrc资助的一个非常成功的项目的基础上进行的，该项目是由主要申请人主持的（见支持案例）。早期的拨款是一个范围界定项目，目的是评估对撒切尔公共政策对当代英国社会的社会、经济和文化影响进行更长期和深入的调查的可能性和可取程度，特别是因为这些特征与刑事司法政策有关。早前的拨款研究了英国自20世纪70年代和80年代以来有幸投资的正在进行的调查，如劳动力调查、综合住户调查和英国犯罪调查。除此之外，还有其他非政府调查（例如英国社会态度调查），这些调查为评估长期以来社会态度和经验的变化方向提供了基础。根据早期的项目，我们发展了撒切尔社会和经济政策在特定政策领域（经济、住房、社会保障和教育政策）“运作”的方式的理论模型，以及这些政策如何对犯罪和犯罪政策产生“连锁”效应（见Hay and Farrall， 2011和Farrall and Hay， 2010）。与Colin Hay（谢菲尔德大学政治系）一起，首席申请人还在英国学院举行了一次研讨会，以进一步探讨这些问题（这是在2011年7月举行的）。这笔赠款旨在通过探索犯罪趋势（一个关键的社会问题）和关键的社会和经济过程（社会态度、对政府的信任、经济不平等、经济乐观主义、住房收回和其他“社会压力”措施）来推进这一研究议程。我们理解这些过程的关键是详细考虑撒切尔政府（1979-1990）和主要政府（1990-1997）的经济和社会政策。该基金使用了一种称为时间序列模型的分析形式。这着眼于随着时间的变化（例如从1960年到2000年），因此能够告诉我们长期趋势，以及这些趋势如何容易受到社会和经济政策背后更广泛的政治哲学变化的影响。吸取的经验教训将通过在伦敦举行的一次会议加以传播。除了撰写学术期刊文章和为现有数据集的其他用户举办活动外，研究小组还将帮助制作一部关于撒切尔夫人社会和经济政策对英国犯罪影响的电影（斯蒂芬和艾米丽都有制作政策相关主题短片的经验（见ESRC授予RES189250258））。

This grant follows on from an earlier ESRC-funded and very successful scoping project held by the lead applicant (see Case for Support). The earlier grant was a scoping project, undertaken in order to assess the extent to which it would be possible and desirable to undertake more prolonged and in-depth investigations into the social, economic and cultural impacts of Thatcherite public policy on contemporary UK society, especially as these features relate to criminal justice policy. The earlier grant explored the on-going surveys which the UK has been fortunate enough to invest in since the 1970s and 1980s, such as the Labour Force Survey, the General Household Survey and the British Crime Survey. In addition to this, there are other, non-governmental surveys which exist (e.g. the British Social Attitudes Survey) and which provide a basis for the assessment of the direction of changes in social attitudes and experiences over time. Following the earlier project, we have developed our theoretical model of the ways in which Thatcherite social and economic policies 'operated' with regards to specific policy domains (the economy, housing, social security and education policies) and how these had 'knock-on' effects for crime and crime policies (see Hay and Farrall, 2011 and Farrall and Hay, 2010). With Colin Hay (Dept of Politics, Sheffield University) the lead applicant has also held a seminar at the British Academy in order to further explore these matters (this was held in July 2011). This grant aims to take forward this research agenda by exploring trends in crime (a key social problem) and key social and economic processes (social attitudes, trust in governments, economic inequality, economic optimism, housing repossessions and other measures of 'social stress'). Key to our understanding of these processes is an detailed consideration of the economic and social policies of the Thatcher governments (1979-1990) and by extension the Major governments (1990-1997). The grant uses a form of analysis called time series modelling. This looks at changes over time (e.g. from 1960-2000) and hence is able to tell us about long-term trends and the ways in which these are susceptible to changes in the wider political philosophy which lies behind social and economic policies. Lessons learnt will be disseminated via a conference in London. As well as writing academic journal articles and holding events for other users of existing data sets, the research team will help to make a film about the impacts of Thatcherite social and economic policies on crime in the UK (both Stephen and Emily have past experience of producing short films on policy-related topics (see ESRC grant RES189250258)).