The Economics of Brexit: Building a Bridge from Data to Policy Analysis

2016年6月23日，英国选民投票决定脱离欧盟。英国脱欧可能会导致英国经济政策发生广泛变化，尤其是在贸易和移民领域。在公投之前，大多数经济学家认为英国脱欧会导致英国生活水平下降，但对于英国脱欧的影响会有多大，不同的消费者和行业会受到多大的影响，以及英国应该采取什么政策来获得最好的脱欧，存在相当大的分歧。该项目将利用自公投以来经济结果的变化，更多地了解英国脱欧可能如何影响英国经济，并评估英国在脱欧谈判期间面临的政策选择的成本和收益。这项研究背后的关键思想是，今天做出的决定在一定程度上是基于对未来的预期。例如，一家公司股票的买卖价格取决于对该公司未来业绩的预期。这意味着即使在英国离开欧盟之前，经济决策也会受到英国脱欧对未来英国经济变化的预期的影响。从英国脱欧中受益的公司将看到其股价上涨，而预计在英国脱欧后面临更多贸易壁垒的公司可能会减少投资，从而导致出口下降。通过分析公投对股市价格和贸易流量的影响，该项目将阐明英国脱欧的短期经济影响，以及企业和市场参与者如何期望英国脱欧对英国经济的长期影响。这些发现将使我们更好地理解英国脱欧对经济的影响，而不是在公投前进行的研究。该项目的结果还将帮助公民和政策制定者确定英国在离开欧盟后做出的最佳选择。例如，确定哪些公司和部门有望成为英国脱欧的赢家和输家，对于制定产业政策和设计实施计划以帮助经济顺利适应英国脱欧都很重要。同样，了解哪种类型的贸易壁垒对英国公司最重要，哪些英国公司最容易受到贸易壁垒增加的风险，将在塑造英国与欧盟和非欧盟国家贸易谈判的优先事项方面发挥至关重要的作用。通过解决这些问题，该项目将突出经济分析对基于证据的政策制定的重要性。

On 23 June 2016, the UK electorate voted to leave the EU. Brexit is likely to lead to wide ranging changes in UK economic policy, particularly in the areas of trade and migration. Prior to the referendum most economists thought Brexit would cause a reduction in UK living standards, but there was considerable disagreement over how large the Brexit effect would be, how different consumers and sectors would be affected and what policies the UK should adopt to obtain the best Brexit possible. This project will use changes in economic outcomes since the referendum to learn more about how Brexit is likely to affect the UK economy and to evaluate the costs and benefits of the policy choices facing the UK during Brexit negotiations.The key idea behind the research is that decisions made today are, in part, based on expectations about the future. For example, the price at which shares in a company are bought and sold depends upon expectations about the company's future performance. This means that even before the UK leaves the EU, economic decisions will be affected by the expectations of future changes to the UK economy caused by Brexit. Companies that stand to benefit from Brexit will see their share prices increase, while firms that expect to face increased trade barriers following Brexit may reduce investment leading to lower exports. By analysing the impact of the referendum vote on stock market prices and trade flows this project will shed light on both the short-run economic effects of Brexit and how businesses and market participants expect Brexit to affect the UK economy in the longer term. These findings will lead to a better understanding of the economic impact of Brexit than was possible in work undertaken before the referendum.The results from this project will also help citizens and policy makers determine the best choices for the UK to make as it leaves the EU. For example, identifying which firms and sectors are expected to be the winners and losers from Brexit is important both for the formulation of industrial policy and for designing an implementation plan to help the economy smoothly adjust to Brexit. Similarly, knowledge about what type of trade barriers matter most to UK firms and which UK firms are most at risk from increased trade barriers will play a vital role in shaping the UK's priorities in trade negotiations with the EU and non-EU countries. By addressing these questions the project will highlight the importance of economic analysis for evidence based policy making.