Voters and the British Political System in the Context of Brexit: the British Election Study 2019-2026

近几十年来，英国选民变得越来越不稳定。这种动荡的环境使最近的政治冲击和事件带来了一个迅速和戏剧性的政治变革时期。在2015年，我们目睹了政党支持的碎片化，自由民主党的崩溃以及UKIP，绿党和SNP等较小和较新政党的崛起。2017年，在英国脱欧公投之后，这一情况发生了逆转，保守党和工党的支持率激增，许多选民根据他们对欧洲和移民的态度进行选择。无论英国脱欧最终采取何种形式，都将对选举产生巨大影响，未来五年，选举格局可能会发生进一步变化。英国选举研究的目的是提供一个深刻的和理论上知情的理解这些变化。我们建议进行一项研究，以最大限度地了解英国脱欧对学术和非学术受益者的直接选举和政治后果。我们建议的项目将通过为研究界收集高质量的调查数据，广泛的最相关和最及时的问题，以及明确的传播和影响计划来实现这一目标。我们还将通过开展一项理论研究计划来实现这一目标，该计划将选举波动的长期趋势与当代政治事件联系起来。该项目将受益于与2014-2019年BES（和历史BES研究）在方法和理论方法方面的高度连续性以及相当程度的创新，使BES保持在全球国家选举研究的前沿。BES将由两个核心组成部分组成：选举后对公民进行的具有全国代表性的跨部门抽样调查;以及一个互联网小组。这些调查的内容将围绕问责性、代表性和对政治制度的支持等主题进行组织。这些调查将使用户了解和展示这些民主的关键领域如何受到英国脱欧的影响。这项研究的目的是调查代表性、问责制和系统支持方面的地域和社会差异。通过最大限度地提高与过去研究的可比性，还可以比较历次选举研究中的选民行为和态度。同样，BES将通过确保英国和其他国家之间的可比性，帮助研究人员了解国家背景的作用。选举间小组将提供一个平台，分析个人层面变化的驱动因素，并将包括由用户群体设计和为用户群体设计的问题。用户将能够使用我们的每日选民样本调查竞选活动的影响。我们还将使来自其他来源的数据，包括其他调查的数据，有可能联系起来。我们将与Social Science One Consortium合作，使研究人员能够将Facebook数据匿名安全地链接到BES受访者，这将允许用户将BES调查响应与行为社交媒体数据相结合。我们将留出15%的互联网面板作为创新模块（分为四个部分）。我们将使用这个空间为用户创建的模块，是相关的用户的研究议程和更广泛的用户社区。这一调查空间还将使BES团队能够试验新的项目，并调整其他研究的项目，以便与文献中正在进行的辩论相比较和相关。我们的定制设计的BES网站将提供方便的访问数据和故事从BES产生。一项咨询、活动和媒体参与的计划将确保这项研究提高公众对选举政治的认识和理解，并协助学术和非学术研究人员开展自己的工作。

The British electorate has become more volatile in recent decades. This volatile environment has allowed recent political shocks and events to bring about a period of rapid and dramatic political change. In 2015 we witnessed fragmentation of party support with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats and the rise of smaller and newer parties such as UKIP, the Greens, and the SNP. In 2017, following the Brexit vote, this was reversed, with a surge in support for the Conservatives and Labour, with many voters choosing on the basis of their attitudes towards Europe and immigration. Whatever form Brexit eventually takes, it will have huge electoral consequences and the next five years are likely to see further shifts in the electoral landscape. The British Election Study will be designed to provide a deep and theoretically informed understanding of those changes. We are proposing a study that maximizes the understanding of the immediate electoral and political consequences of Brexit - both for academic and non-academic beneficiaries.Our proposed project will achieve this by collecting high quality survey data for the research community, a broad array of the most relevant and timely questions, and a clear dissemination and impact plan. We will also achieve this by carrying out a program of theoretically informed research linking long-term trends in electoral volatility and contemporary political events. The project will benefit from a high level of continuity with the 2014-2019 BES (and historical BES studies) in terms of methodological and theoretical approach and a substantial degree of innovation, keeping the BES at the forefront of national election studies globally. The BES will consist of two core components: a post-election cross-sectional nationally representative sample survey of citizens; and an internet panel. The content of these surveys will be organised around the themes of accountability, representation and support for the political system. The surveys will allow users to understand and demonstrate how these key areas of democracy are affected by Brexit. The study will be designed to allow investigation of geographical and social variation in representation, accountability and system support. By maximising the extent of comparability with past studies it will also make it possible to compare voter behaviour and attitudes across successive election studies. Similarly the BES will help researchers to understand the role of national context by ensuring comparability between Britain and other countries. The inter-election panel will provide a platform for analysing the drivers of individual-level change and will include questions designed by and for the user community. Users will be able to investigate the impact of the election campaign using our daily sample of voters. We will also make it possible to link data from other sources including other surveys. We will work with the Social Science One Consortium to enable researchers to link Facebook data to BES respondents anonymously and securely which will allow users to combine BES survey responses with behavioural social media data.We will set aside 15% of the Internet Panel as an Innovation Module (split into four parts). We will use this space for user-created modules that are relevant to both the users' research agendas and the wider user community. This survey space will also allow the BES team to trial new items and adapt items from other studies for comparability and relevance to ongoing debates in the literature. Our custom designed BES website will provide easy access to data and stories arising from the BES. A program of consultation, events and media engagement will ensure that the study enhances public awareness and understanding of electoral politics, and assist academic and non-academic researchers in their own work.