Constructing the decision environment from memory: how overweighting extreme events biases choice

决策包括通过考虑每个结果的可能性以及它的回报来在不同的选择中做出选择。在某些情况下，例如阅读药物的副作用，这些可能性和结果被列出，而在其他情况下，例如发现新的食物过敏，我们需要从经验中学习它们。我们的记忆会影响我们所做的决定。有些项目，比如极具奖励的事件，比其他项目更容易被记住，因此更有可能影响我们的决定。对特定事件的记忆如何影响决策？想象一下，你在度假，你去买牛奶。你可以向左拐，步行3分钟到报刊亭，或者向右拐，步行3分钟到超市。假设你最近四次去报刊亭买牛奶的价格是：1.50英镑、0.95英镑、1.40英镑、1英镑；在超市买牛奶的价格是：1.23英镑、1.26英镑、1.25英镑、1.22英镑。所以，你在两家商店平均花的钱是一样的。为了决定走哪条路，你可以从记忆中提取一些经验。你对哪些产品进行取样，然后你如何比较这些产品？你可能会想起自己买到便宜货，花了0.95英镑高兴地向右转的情景。然而，你也可能很容易超支，所以你应该好好想想你花了1.5英镑的时间。你的决定取决于在相同的背景下尚未检查的过程：1)你最初编码的事件；2)你从记忆中抽取了多少经历，以及它们的“价值”；3)你们如何比较样品中的产品。研究表明，人们在做决定时更有可能依赖极端信息，这可能会增加寻求风险的行为。这种现象背后的确切记忆机制尚不清楚。这个项目调查了我们对奖励事件（包括极端事件）的记忆是如何影响决策和冒险选择的。拟议的研究将使用一套由计算模型支持的理论驱动实验来解决这个问题。在一系列实验中，我们将评估健康个体如何在记忆中编码、存储和检索奖励，并利用这些记忆做出决定。我们将开发计算机模型来理解记忆是如何引导风险选择的。该项目将增加我们对记忆在风险决策中的作用的理解，并帮助我们确定治疗干预的新方法。人们的许多日常决定和选择与健康相关的生活方式、财务储蓄、购买行为和环境选择都受到对过去经历的记忆的严重影响。这项研究将支持更好、更有效的选择架构干预措施的发展。如果我们能够更好地理解人们如何从记忆中检索信息，以及这些检索到的信息如何支持选择，我们将能够开发出促进或推动记忆以改善选择的干预措施。

Decision-making involves choosing between alternatives by considering the probability of each outcome and how rewarding it will be. In some situations, such as reading the side effects of a medication, these probabilities and outcomes are listed and in others, such discovering a new food allergy, we need to learn them from experience. What we remember influences the decisions we make. Some items, such as extremely rewarding events, are more likely to be remembered than others and therefore more likely to influence our decisions. How might memory for particular events influence decision-making? Imagine that you are on holiday and you go to buy milk. You can either turn left and walk 3 minutes to the newsagent or turn right and walk 3 minutes to the supermarket. Let's assume that the last four times you have been to a newsagent you paid the following for milk [£1.50, £0.95, 1.40, £1] and at the supermarket you paid [£1.23, £1.26, £1.25, £1.22]. So, on average you paid the same at both shops. To decide which way to turn, you might sample a few experiences from memory. Which items do you sample and how do you then compare these items? You may think of the time you found a bargain and paid £0.95 and happily turn right. However, you may just as easily end up over paying so you would do well to think of the time you paid £1.50. What you decide depends on the processes which have yet to be examined in the same context: 1) which events you originally encoded; 2) how many experiences you sample from your memory and their "value"; and 3) how you compare the items in your sample. Research has indicated that people are more likely to rely on extreme information when making decisions and this can increase risk-seeking behaviours. The precise memory mechanism underlying this phenomenon are not yet understood. This project investigates how our memory for rewarding events, including extreme events, contributes to decision-making and risky choices. The proposed research will address this question using a suite of theory driven experiments supported by computational models. In a series of experiments, we will assess how healthy individuals encode, store and retrieve rewards in memory and use these memories to make decisions. We will develop computer models to understand how memory guides risky-choice. The project will increase our understanding of the role of memory in risky decision-making and help us to identify novel approaches for therapeutic intervention. Many of people's everyday decisions and choices relating to health-related lifestyle, financial savings, purchasing behaviours and environmental choices are heavily influenced by memory for past experiences. This research will support the development of better, more effective choice architecture interventions. If we can develop a better understanding of how people retrieve information from memory, and how that retrieved information supports choice, we will be able to develop interventions that prompt or nudge memory to improve choice.