Beyond Unionism and Nationalism in Northern Ireland: Electors, Voters and Party Members

北爱尔兰的政治一直是建立在工会主义者和民族主义分歧的基础上的。在下放的行政和议会中，工会主义者和民族主义者之间的权力分享是强制性的。然而，根据ESRC北爱尔兰2019年选举研究，40%的北爱尔兰选举人表示他们既不是工会主义者，也不是民族主义者，相比之下，只有27%的人认为他们是工会主义者，25%的人认为他们是民族主义者。尽管如此，人们对这些“兄弟”的情况知之甚少，比如他们是谁，他们为什么拒绝工会主义和民族主义，他们投票或弃权的原因，以及他们对非工会主义和非民族主义政党的支持程度。该项目旨在纠正这些知识差距，方法是对既不是工会主义者也不是民族主义者的选举人进行调查，并对不结盟国家集团--联盟党-北爱尔兰政府中唯一代表不结盟国家的政党--的主要代表进行成员资格研究。该项目涉及对a)宣布他们既不是工会主义者也不是民族主义者的选举人进行广泛的人口统计和态度调查，以了解他们的背景和理由，以及b)通过对该党同意的整个政党成员的调查，检查那些致力于拒绝工会主义和民族主义的最大政党联盟内部那些既不支持工会主义也不支持民族主义的人的观点。通过分析非选民、选民和避免工会主义和民族主义的政党成员的人口统计学和观点，我们将更好地了解北爱尔兰的第三传统，这一传统在数量上是最大的，但研究最少。我们将分析拒绝工会主义和民族主义的几种不同类型的选民：a)因为拒绝而拒绝参加选举制度的非选民。B)支持联盟或其他较小的非工会主义/非民族主义政党(例如绿党)的选民，因为他们既不是工会主义者也不是民族主义者，和/或因为他们支持某一特定政党的政策；c)非工会主义者和非民族主义者的选民，他们仍然出于各种原因投票给工会主义者或民族主义政党，例如战术或较低的偏好投票。D)坚定地反对联盟成员中现有的工会主义者和民族主义者的二元对立，评估该党如何试图：i)容纳工会主义者和民族主义者之间的妥协；或ii)克服北爱尔兰的分裂；iii)理解什么是种族盲目的政策，以减少宗派分歧，得到党员的支持。这是一个重要的项目，因为：a)我们需要了解非族裔选民和党员如何看待他们被要求参与的少数民族政党制度。B)北爱尔兰的中心地带很大，不太可能消失。在2019年的欧洲和威斯敏斯特选举中，Alliance的投票率分别增加了11%和9%。该党在这些竞选中的得票率为19%(欧洲)和17%(威斯敏斯特)，创下该党的历史新高。联盟已上升为北爱尔兰第三大支持率最高的政党，仅次于民主统一党和新芬党。c)非工会主义和非民族主义选举人是需要在未来任何关于北爱尔兰宪法未来的边界投票中由工会主义者或民族主义者赢得的“摇摆”选民，这是耶稣受难日协议允许的。d)人们对中间立场及其主要政党知之甚少。除了北爱尔兰的两个主要传统之外，还没有一本书那么长的关于选举人或政党的学术研究，只有一本关于联盟的单独活动人士卷，只有三篇关于联盟的期刊文章。材料的匮乏突显了一个更广泛的研究问题：对种族分裂的社会的关注主要是其种族政党，而不是超越宗派分歧的组织。

Politics in Northern Ireland has always been framed upon unionist versus nationalist divisions. Power-sharing between unionists and nationalists is mandatory in the devolved Executive and Assembly. Yet, according to the 2019 ESRC Northern Ireland election study, 40% of Northern Ireland's electors say they are neither unionist nor nationalist, compared to only 27% identifying as unionist and 25% as nationalist. Despite this, remarkably little is known about those 'neithers', in terms of who they are, why they reject unionism and nationalism, their reasons for voting or abstaining, and the depth of their backing for non-unionist and non-nationalist parties. This project aims to rectify these knowledge gaps by surveying those electors who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist and undertaking a membership study of the main representatives of the non-aligned grouping, the Alliance Party, the only non-aligned party represented in Northern Ireland's government. The project involves an extensive demographic and attitudinal survey of a) electors declaring they are neither unionist or nationalist, to understand their background and their rationale and b) to examine the views of those committed to the rejection of unionism and nationalism within the largest party, Alliance, not aligned to either unionism or nationalism, via a survey of the entire party membership to which the party has agreed.By analysing the demography and views of non-voters, voters and party members who eschew unionism and nationalism, we will achieve a far better understanding of Northern Ireland's understudied third tradition, numerically its largest but the least researched. We will analyse several different types of elector rejecting unionism and nationalism: a) the non-voter who refuses to participate in the electoral system because of that rejection. b) the voter who supports Alliance, or other smaller non-unionist/non-nationalist parties, e.g. the Greens, because they are neither unionist or nationalist and/or because they back the policies of that particular party; c) the non-unionist and non-nationalist voter who nonetheless votes for a unionist or nationalist party for various reasons, such as tactical or lower preference voting. d) the committed rejectionists of the existing unionist v nationalist binary within Alliance's membership, assessing how the party attempts to either i) accommodate compromises between unionists and nationalists or ii) overcome Northern Ireland's divisions iii) understand what ethnic-blind policies, to diminish sectarian divisions, are backed by party members. This is an important project because: a) we need to understand how non-ethnic electors and party members view the ethnic party system in which they are asked to participate. b) Northern Ireland's centre ground is large and unlikely to disappear. Alliance saw its vote share increase by 11% and 9% respectively in the 2019 European and Westminster elections. The party's vote shares in those contests, of 19% (European)and 17% (Westminster) represented record highs for the party. Alliance has risen to become Northern Ireland's third-best supported party, behind only the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin.c) non-unionist and non-nationalist electors are the 'swing' voters who need to be won by unionists or nationalists in any future border poll on Northern Ireland's constitutional future, permitted under the Good Friday Agreement.d) little is known about the centre ground and its main party. There has been no book-length academic study of electors or parties outside Northern Ireland's two main traditions, only a solitary activist's volume on Alliance and only three journal articles dedicated to the organisation. This dearth of material highlights a wider research problem: that the focus upon ethnically divided societies is mainly their ethnic parties, not organisations beyond the sectarian divide.