Manufacturing beyond Brexit, Covid-19 and the War in Ukraine

汽车和航空航天等行业受到了新冠肺炎的一系列影响(供应链中断、订单取消、芯片短缺、劳动力短缺等)。在这些影响之外，英国退欧还对制造业供应链产生了影响，例如，通过遵守海关和原产地规则、囤积商品、转移供应商等方面的额外成本。乌克兰的战争增加了工业的压力，提高了能源价格，进一步扰乱了一些零部件的供应(比如汽车上使用的线束，或者用于调节激光刻蚀芯片的霓虹灯气体)。这些对制造业的影响已经对地区产生了深远的影响(在撰写本文时，伦敦的GDP比严寒前高出1%)。西米德兰兹郡的GDP要低10%)。为了更好地了解这些潜在影响，该研究员将研究一些相互关联的问题及其政策含义。1英国退欧、新冠肺炎和乌克兰战争对制造业的持续影响是什么？例如，我们在早期研究中发现的一个关键点是，小企业真的很难处理英国退欧后的习俗和原产地规则文书工作，在某些情况下，小企业要么停止出口，要么在荷兰等地的中心囤积，增加了成本；2在英国退欧、新冠肺炎和乌克兰战争的背景下，制造业‘回流’存在哪些机会，哪些壁垒可以阻止这一点？这是否有助于将一些制造业的工作岗位带回英国地区？；3鉴于欧盟可能会引入“碳边界调整税”，这会对英国和欧盟的制造业产生怎样的影响，企业可能会如何应对？；4制造业正在经历一场“双胞胎转型”，需要达到净零，并采用人工智能和自动化等“工业4.0”技术的混合。考虑到正在向电动汽车(EVS)的转变，汽车行业的“简单过渡”会是什么样子？在这方面，考虑到贸易与合作协议要求电动汽车的电池在2026年后在英国或欧盟制造，以避免关税，英国退欧的层面尤其相关。英国在建立电动汽车供应链方面做得够多了吗？5这对这四个领域和相关领域的政府政策(如技能需求、区域层面的产业政策)意味着什么，特别是作为政府，考虑到政府已经基本上放弃了其产业战略，(如何)英国才能“更好地增长”？

Sectors like automotive and aerospace have taken a series of hits from the impacts of Covid-19 (supply chain disruption, cancelled orders, chip shortages, labour shortages etc). These have come on top of the impacts of Brexit on manufacturing supply chains for example through extra costs in terms of complying with customs and rules of origin, in stockpiling goods, in shifting suppliers and so on. And the war in Ukraine has added to industry stress by increasing energy prices and disrupting the supply of some components yet further (such as for the wiring harnesses used in cars or the neon gas used to regulate the lasers etching chips).Such impacts on manufacturing have had a profound regional impact (at the time of writing London's GDP is 1% higher than it was pre-Covid. The West Midlands' GDP is 10% lower). That makes 'levelling up' even tougher.In better understanding these potential impacts, the Fellowship will look at a number of linked issues and their policy implications.1 What are the ongoing impacts of Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine on manufacturing? For example, a key point we found in earlier research is that small firms simply really struggle with post-Brexit customs and Rules of Origin paperwork and in some cases have either stopped bothering exporting or stockpile at hubs in say the Netherlands, adding to costs;2 What opportunities exist around 'reshoring' manufacturing and what barriers could prevent this, in the context of Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine? Could this help bring back some manufacturing jobs to UK regions?;3 Given that the EU is likely to bring in a 'carbon border adjustment tax' how could this impact on UK and EU manufacturing and how firms might respond?;4 Manufacturing is undergoing a 'twin transition' in terms of the need to reach Net Zero and embrace a mix of 'Industry 4.0' technologies like AI and automation. What could a 'just transition' look like specifically in the auto industry given the ongoing shift to electric vehicles (EVs)? Here the Brexit dimension is especially relevant given the Trade & Cooperation Agreement's requirements for batteries in EVs to be made in the UK or EU after 2026 for electric cars exported between the two to avoid tariffs. Is the UK doing enough to build an electric vehicle supply chain?5 What does this mean for government policy across these four areas and related areas (eg skills needs, regional level industrial policy) especially as the government, And given that the government has largely scrapped its industrial strategy, (how) can the UK 'grow back better'?.