Multiresolution predictive dynamics of COVID-19 risk and intervention effects

SARS-CoV2是一种新型病毒，尽管新数据提高了科学洞察力，但关于传播的关键方面仍存在许多不确定性。在整个大流行期间，新冠肺炎的数学和统计模型在分析流行病学数据、预测发病趋势和评估不同干预策略的潜在影响方面发挥了重要作用。帝国理工学院新冠肺炎响应团队开发的模型特别有影响力，但由于缺乏有关传播模式的详细数据，因此需要做出重要假设，限制其预测性能。该项目将(A)扩展传播趋势预测模型，以包括复杂的时空相关性，以更好地捕捉新的传播事件并改进对传播热点的早期识别；(B)了解干预措施对传播的因果影响以及这种推断可能达到的限度；(C)系统地整理和分析特定环境(家庭、学校、工作场所和疗养院)的传播数据，以得出这些环境的具体传播参数估计，用于提高模型预测有针对性的非药物干预措施的影响的能力；(D)了解重要的流行病学参数如何随时间变化，以及是什么推动这些变化。这项工作将直接支持帝国团队通过SPI-M、Nervtag和SAGE委员会，以及我们与PHE和联合生物安全中心(JBC)的合作伙伴关系，为英国新冠肺炎响应提供支持。

SARS-CoV2 is a novel virus, and even as new data improves scientific insight, many uncertainties remain about key aspects of transmission. Throughout the pandemic, mathematical and statistical models of COVID-19 have had an important role in the analysis of epidemiological data, in forecasting incidence trends and in assessing the potential impact of different intervention strategies. Models developed by the Imperial College COVID-19 response team have been particularly influential, but the absence of detailed data on transmission patterns have necessitated important assumptions that limit their predictive performance. This project will (a) extend predictive models of transmission trends to include complex spatiotemporal correlation to better capture new seeding events and improve early identification of hotspots of transmission, (b) understand the causal effect of interventions on transmission and the limits to which this inference is possible, (c) systematically collate and analyse data on transmission in specific contexts (households, schools, workplaces and care homes) to derive specific transmission parameter estimates for those settings to be used to improve the ability of models to predict the impact of targeted non pharmaceutical interventions, (d) Understand how important epidemiological parameters are changing with time and what is driving these changes. This work will directly support the Imperial team's input into the UK COVID-19 response via the SPI-M, NERVTAG and SAGE committees and our partnerships with PHE and the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC).