Extreme Climatic Events in Marine Ecosystems

该项目将采用观测、实验和建模相结合的方法，确定极端气候事件对复杂海洋群落和生态系统的影响，并在此过程中，将成为关于短期气候波动对海洋生物资源和生物多样性的健康和分布的影响的第一个多方面工作。近几十年来，世界显著变暖，对生态系统及其提供的生态货物和服务产生了重大影响。在这种逐渐变暖的趋势上叠加的是短期极端气候事件，如洪水和热浪，这些事件的频率和规模都增加了，这是人为气候变化的直接后果。极端事件可能对生态系统造成灾难性破坏，并引起生态结构的阶段性变化。然而，对海洋生态系统中极端气候事件的了解很少，这是在几次不同的气候事件之后偶然获得的，也是从孤立地对几个物种进行的简单实验室实验中获得的。我们迫切需要在社区或生态系统层面进行实地研究，以阐明对气候事件的反应模式，并最终提高我们管理和保护海洋生物多样性的能力。本项目将进行新颖的实地实验，模拟短期变暖事件，以研究“海洋热浪”对一系列海洋生境的生态结构和功能的影响，包括海草草甸、海藻床和岩石海岸。该项目将开发两种创新方法，用于进行原地升温实验，这将产生关于对极端气候事件的模式相关反应（例如群落结构）和过程相关反应（例如物种相互作用、初级生产力）的新信息。此外，该项目还将审查对实际极端变暖事件-2003年欧洲热浪和2011年澳大利亚西南部海域厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件-的生态反应和恢复情况，以确定海洋生态系统对气候波动的复原力。实地研究还将辅之以一系列围隔生态系统实验，评估海洋热浪对生态过程和物种相互作用的影响。最后，该项目将分析长期温度数据，以解释异常事件的时间趋势，并开发对这些离散事件的生态反应的预测模型。这一研究方案将产生关于极端气候事件如何影响宝贵的沿海生态系统生态的重要信息，这是预测和适应我们海洋气候变化所迫切需要的。

This project will determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on complex marine communities and ecosystems using a combination of observational, experimental and modeling approaches and, in doing so, will represent the first multi-faceted body of work on the influence of short-term climate fluctuations on the health and distribution of living marine resources and biodiversity. The world has warmed significantly over recent decades with major implications for ecosystems and the ecological goods and services they provide. Superimposed onto this gradual warming trend are short-term extreme climatic events, such as floods and heat waves, which have increased in frequency and magnitude as a direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. Extreme events can cause catastrophic damage to ecosystems and invoke phase-shifts in ecological structure. However, knowledge of extreme climatic events in marine ecosystems is scant, having been opportunistically gained following a few disparate climatic episodes, and from simple laboratory experiments conducted on few species in isolation. There is a critical need for field-based studies conducted at the community or ecosystem level to elucidate response patterns to climatic events and, ultimately, to improve our ability to manage and conserve marine biodiversity.This project will conduct novel field experiments that simulate short-term warming events to examine the effects of 'marine heat waves' on ecological structure and function in a range of marine habitats, including seagrass meadows, kelp beds and rocky shores. The project will develop two innovative approaches for conducting in situ warming experiments, which will yield novel information on pattern-related responses (e.g. community structure) and process-related responses (e.g. species interactions, primary productivity) to extreme climatic events. Moreover, the project will examine ecological response and recovery to actual extreme warming events - the 2003 European heat wave and the 2011 ENSO event off southwest Australia -to determine the resilience of marine ecosystems to climatic fluctuations. Field-based research will also be complimented with a suite of mesocosm experiments that assess the influence of marine heat waves on ecological processes and species interactions. Finally, the project will analyse long-term temperature data to decipher temporal trends in anomalous events and develop predictive models of ecological responses to these discrete episodes. This research programme will generate vital information on how extreme climatic events impact the ecology of valuable coastal ecosystems, which is urgently needed for prediction and adaptation to climate change in our seas.