Integrated Analysis of Freshwater Resources Sustainability in Jordan

这一拟议的努力将侧重于制定一个综合框架，以约旦为示范系统，评估水资源紧张国家的水政策干预措施。约旦是许多干旱地区的代表，在这些地区，未来的自然和社会变化为全国性的供水失败奠定了基础。现有的水资源模型忽略了水文和社会经济组成部分之间的关键相互作用，导致缺乏做出长期政策决定所需的整体分析。我们的跨学科团队将开发一个定量的政策评估工具，以探索如何通过优化分配程序，机构重组，补贴/关税，水租赁市场和跨界机构等创新来提高淡水系统的可持续性。我们将构建一个模块化的，基于代理的水文经济模型，其中每个模块都从一个独特的学科中获取科学和本地知识，将水文，农艺和社会经济分析合成为一个连贯的分析框架。这些模块将通过系统组件之间的反馈联系起来。政策评估模式将把自然现象（地下水-地表水流动、作物产量和土壤/水含盐量）的联合收割机模拟与机构和用户一级的人类决策（水的使用、管理、分配、跨界水和贸易）结合起来。我们将根据一套量化的经济和环境指标评估广泛的政策干预。除了开发一种新的水政策分析工具外，该项目还旨在为已经耗尽传统供应源并在脆弱边缘运行的水系统确定创新的政策解决方案。我们将评估与政策解决方案相关的风险和收益分析，并将管理方案传达给利益相关者，积极征求他们的意见。该项目还将为在地球仪其他缺水地区部署综合框架奠定基础。

This proposed effort will focus on development of an integrated framework to evaluate water policyinterventions in water-stressed countries using Jordan as a model system. Jordan is representative ofmany arid regions where future natural and social changes set the stage for nationwide water supplyfailures. Existing water resources models ignore critical interactions between hydrologic andsocioeconomic components, resulting in a lack of holistic analysis needed to make long-term policydecisions. Our interdisciplinary team will develop a quantitative policy-evaluation tool to explore ways toenhance the sustainability of freshwater systems through such innovations as optimized allocationprocedures, institutional re-structuring, subsidies/tariffs, water-lease markets, and transboundaryinstitutions. We will construct a modular, agent-based hydroeconomic model in which each modulecaptures scientific and local knowledge from a unique discipline synthesizing hydrologic, agronomic, andsocioeconomic analysis into a coherent analytical framework. The modules will be linked throughfeedbacks among system components. The policy-evaluation model will combine simulation of naturalphenomena (groundwater-surface water flow, crop yield, and soil / water salinity) with humandecision-making at the institutional and user levels (water usage, regulation, allocation, transboundarywater, and trade). We will evaluate a wide range of policy interventions based on a set of quantitativeeconomic and environmental metrics. In addition to developing a new tool for water policy analysis, theproject aims to identify innovative policy solutions for a water system that has exhausted traditionalsupply sources and is operating at the vulnerable edge. Our analysis of risks and benefits associatedwith policy solutions will be assessed, and management options communicated to stakeholders who willbe actively solicited for input. The project will further set the groundwork for deploying the integratedframework to other water-stressed regions throughout the globe.