E-Rise: Earliest detection of sea-level rise accelerations to inform lead time to upgrade/replace coastal flood defense infrastructure.

有强有力的观测证据表明，全球平均海平面正在上升，预计上升速度将加快，严重威胁英国海岸周围数千亿英镑的基础设施。因此，需要对沿海防御设施进行大量升级/更换，以维持现有的洪水风险管理标准。然而，这将涉及与计划的规划和实施有关的漫长筹备时间。例如，建造泰晤士河屏障的计划是在1953年臭名昭著的北海洪水之后开始的，但屏障直到1982年才开始运作-将近30年后！海平面快速上升将缩短国防基础设施升级/更换的准备时间。此外，由于在区域/地方尺度上海平面的年际变化相当明显，因此探测海平面上升速度的加速并不简单。我们的最新研究表明，可能需要数年到十多年才能检测到可辨别的加速度。因此，迫切需要：（1）探索如何快速检测到不同的海平面加速，并将其与升级/更换不同防御基础设施所需的准备时间进行比较;（2）评估我们是否可以更早地检测到海平面加速，从而延长采取行动的准备时间。这些问题是特别重要的适应性途径的方法来管理日益增加的洪水风险，率先在泰晤士河口2100（TE 2100）项目。虽然适应性管理计划的本质是在需要时进行适应的能力，但只有在以下情况下才有效：（1）发现海平面上升明显加速，然后及时决定转向替代途径;（2）有适当的准备时间进行必要的适应。在TE 2100计划的第一次中期审查中，我们的项目合作伙伴环境局已经确定他们需要做更多的工作：（1）了解他们如何识别海平面的变化，这些变化与假设的预测有很大的差异;（2）了解实施洪水风险管理干预措施的准备时间。我们的建议将应用以前的NERC资助的研究和其他相关研究，以更好地了解可能的交货时间，以升级/更换英国海岸周围的海防基础设施在21世纪世纪，并评估我们是否可以检测到海平面加速更早，以提供足够的行动准备时间。为此，我们将建立一个积极的伙伴小组，讨论与海平面加速探测和筹备时间有关的问题、挑战和影响。然后，我们将开发一个工具箱，使我们能够：（1）使用现场和卫星数据以及最适当的统计方法的最佳组合，确定海平面上升加速的时间（具有不确定性）;（2）估计提前时间;广泛的海平面预测。作为一个案例研究，我们将使用工具箱来检查规划和工程实施要求及其相关的准备时间，以升级/更换泰晤士河屏障和相关的防御。将通过www.example.com网站免费提供工具箱、范例产出和指导说明www.psmsl.org，以供更广泛使用。（环境署，EDF能源，HR Wallingford）和更广泛的利益攸关方：通过纳入关于周转时间的信息，更好地规划未来;更好地监测变化;并做出更有效和自信的决定，以遵循哪种特定的适应途径。该项目将持续1年，成本（80%FEC）118英镑，500.关键词：海平面加速，交货时间，防御升级，泰晤士河屏障

There is strong observational evidence that global mean sea levels are rising and the rate of rise is predicted to accelerate, significantly threatening hundreds of billions of pounds of infrastructure around the UK coast. Substantial upgrades/replacements to coastal defences will therefore be required to maintain existing flood risk management standards. However, this will involve long lead times relating to planning and implementation of schemes. For example, plans for building the Thames Barrier were started after the notorious 1953 North Sea flood, but the Barrier was not operational until 1982 - nearly 30 years later! Rapid rates of sea-level rise will reduce the lead time available for upgrading/replacing defence infrastructure. Moreover, detecting accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise is not straightforward, due to the considerable inter-annual variability evident in sea level at regional/local scales. Our latest research has shown that it could take years to more than a decade before discernable accelerations are detected. There is therefore an immediate need to: (1) explore how quickly different sea-level accelerations can be detected, and to compare these with the lead times that are necessary for upgrading/replacing different defence infrastructure; and (2) assess whether we could detect sea level accelerations earlier, thereby extending the lead times available for action. These issues are particular important in relation to the adaptive pathway approach for managing increasing flood risk that was pioneered in the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project. Although the essence of an adaptive management plan is its ability to adapt when needed, it will only be effective if: (1) a significant acceleration in sea-level rise is detected and then a decision is made in timely manner to move to an alternative pathway; and (2) there is an appropriate lead time to carry out the necessary adaptation. In their first interim review of the TE2100 plan, our project partners the Environment Agency have identified that they need to do much more to: (1) understand how they identify changes in sea level which significantly depart from the assumed projections; and (2) understand the lead times to put in place the flood risk management interventions. Our proposal will apply previous NERC-funded research and other relevant research to better understand likely lead times for upgrading/replacing coastal defence infrastructure around the UK coast over the 21st century, and assess whether we could detect sea-level accelerations earlier to provide sufficient lead time for action. To do this we will develop an active partner group to discuss the issues, challenges and implications relating to detection of sea-level accelerations and the lead times. We will then develop a toolbox that will allow us to: (1) identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations in sea-level rise might first be recognized using the best possible combination of in situ and satellite-based data and most appropriate statistical methods; and (2) to estimate the lead times; for a wide range of sea-level projections. As a case study, we will use the toolbox to examine the planning and engineering implementation requirements and their associated lead times for upgrading/replacing the Thames Barrier and associated defences. The toolbox, example outputs and the guidance notes developed will be made freely available via the www.psmsl.org website, for wider use.The study will be transformative as the outputs will allow our partners (Environment Agency, EDF Energy, HR Wallingford) and wider stakeholders to: better plan for the future by incorporating information on lead times; better monitor change; and make more effective and confident decisions as to which specific adaptive pathway to follow.The project will last 1 year and cost (80% FEC) £118,500.Key words: sea level acceleration, lead times, defence upgrades, Thames Barrier