Dynamical constraints on the future of extratropical precipitation: atmospheric rivers and extratropical storms (DyARES)

中纬度地区的大部分降水来自温带气旋，这是一种带有锋面的低压系统，经常给英国和其他地方带来降水。许多大范围的极端降水、大风和洪水也与这些事件相关，从而对社会产生了重大影响。在这些气旋有长长的尾随水汽羽流将它们连接到热带地区(“大气河流”)的地方，降水可能特别强烈。然而，了解大气河流的行为和控制仍然是一个新兴领域。这项提议将支持埃克塞特大学和斯克里普斯海洋研究所之间的合作，埃克塞特大学在气候动力学方面拥有相当多的专业知识，包括了解温带气旋的行为，斯克里普斯海洋研究所正在开展了解大气河流的前沿工作。这项合作将提供访问斯克里普斯拥有的专有大气河流数据集的机会，并有机会与研究人员合作，了解和利用这些数据。特别是，将调查气候变化的大尺度模式的影响及其在决定大气河流行为方面的作用。这是一个尚待开发的研究途径，但将是确定大气河流(及其影响)对气候变化的反应的关键。这项工作为国家气候研究中心正在进行的一项由埃克塞特牵头的大笔赠款(“真实世界气候变化的稳健空间预测”)增加了重大价值。该项目专门调查与未来气候变化有关的物理过程和现象，本提案将增进我们对影响温带极端降水的一种物理现象--大气河流--的了解，以及它们如何与大尺度和温带气旋相互作用。这项提案中设想的工作还将直接为项目过程中编写的一笔更大的赠款提供信息，为两个小组之间的长期合作提供一个平台，并确保为这笔初始资金增加相当大的附加值。

Most precipitation in the middle latitudes comes from extratropical cyclones - low pressure systems with fronts which regularly bring precipitation to the UK and elsewhere. Many large-scale precipitation extremes, high winds and floods are also associated with these events such that they have a major impact on society. Where these cyclones have long, trailing plumes of moisture connecting them to the tropics ('atmospheric rivers') the precipitation can be particularly intense. However, understanding the behaviour and controls on atmospheric rivers remains an emergent field.This proposal will support a collaboration between the University of Exeter, where there is considerable expertise in climate dynamics, including understanding the behaviour of extratropical cyclones, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, where work at the forefront of understanding atmospheric rivers is being undertaken. This collaboration will provide access to proprietary atmospheric river datasets held at Scripps and an opportunity to work with researchers to understand and utilise those data. In particular, the influence of large-scale patterns of climate variability and their role in determining the behaviour of atmospheric rivers will be investigated. This is an avenue of research which is yet to be exploited but will be key to determining the response of atmospheric rivers (and their impacts) to a changing climate. This work adds significant value to an on-going NERC funded large-grant led at Exeter ("Robust Spatial Projections of Real-World Climate Change"). That project specifically investigates the physical processes and phenomena associated with future climate change and the present proposal will enhance our understanding of a physical phenomena - atmospheric rivers - which impact extratropical precipitation extremes and how they interact with both the large-scale and with extratropical cyclones. The work envisaged in this proposal will also directly inform a larger grant to be written during the course of the project, providing a platform for long term collaboration between the two groups and ensuring considerable additional value is added to this initial funding.