[Malaysia] IMpacts of PRecipitation from Extreme StormS - Malaysia (IMPRESS - Malaysia)

在气候变暖的情况下，降雨量预计会增加，因为温暖的空气可以容纳更多的水。在可以感受到影响的区域一级，由于对变暖的环流反应的不确定性，人们对变化模式的了解不太清楚。除了这些平均降水的变化之外，极端降水的增加可能相当可观，预计每升温1摄氏度将增加7%左右。极端事件往往造成最大的破坏，鉴于其对社会的影响，了解这种极端事件发生频率和程度变化的本质是一个关键问题。在马来西亚半岛，年总降水的大部分是由相对较少的强烈事件产生的。近几十年来，这些极端降水事件一直在增加。它们可以通过洪水造成相当大的破坏，而土地利用的变化可能会加剧这种破坏。目前，马来西亚每年平均洪水损失约为9.15亿令吉。在气候变暖的情况下，转向更强烈的雨季（这是预计的），最极端事件的频率增加，可能会对马来西亚半岛的水文产生重大影响，并对社会产生相关影响。在这个项目中，我们将研究导致马来西亚极端降水的动力特征（例如热带风暴）。我们将研究它们现在的行为和未来可能发生的变化。这样，我们将对未来极端降水事件有一个动态约束的理解。这代表了我们目前对马来西亚极端降水未来变化的理解取得了相当大的进步。然后，我们将使用这些信息来运行水文模型，以估计未来的流量、洪水规模和洪水复发期的变化。该模型将包括土地利用变化的估计，这也将作为项目的一部分进行开发。通过这项研究，马来西亚政府和社会将获得前所未有的详细信息，了解未来极端降水变化和相关河流流量变化的风险和影响。我们还将利用这些信息来评估当前的干预策略，并开发一个洪水管理模型，该模型考虑到我们对洪水风险的改进理解。这些信息将传播给政府和民间社会的各种行为者，以确保产生最大的影响。如果我们要成功地适应更温暖的气候，同时减轻任何变化对马来西亚社会和经济的影响，确保马来西亚未来的基础设施、社会和农业发展受到关键气候事件的预期变化的影响是至关重要的。本项目有能力为实现这一目标作出重大贡献。作为该项目的一部分所开发的技术可以很容易地应用于其他流域和国家，因此，这项工作的影响和寿命可能比目前设想的范围要广泛得多。项目伙伴打算与其他合作者合作，以确保实现这些更广泛的利益。

In a warmer climate, the amount of precipitation is expected to increase, as warmer air can hold more water. At the regional level - where impacts are felt - patterns of change are less well understood due to uncertainty in the circulation response to warming. In addition to these changes in mean precipitation, increases in precipitation extremes may be considerable, and are expected to increase at around 7% per degree Celsius of warming. Extreme events frequently cause the greatest damage, making understanding the nature of changes in both the frequency and magnitude of such extremes a critical issue given their impact on society.In Peninsular Malaysia, the majority of the annual total precipitation is produced by a relatively small number of intense events. These extreme precipitation events have been increasing in recent decades. They can lead to considerable damage through flooding, which can be enhanced by changes in land use. Annual, average annual flood losses are currently around RM 915 million in Malaysia. In a warmer climate, a shift to a more intense wet season (which is expected), with increased frequency of the most extreme events, may have significant implications for the hydrology of Peninsular Malaysia and associated impacts on society.In this project, we will investigate the dynamical features (e.g. tropical storms) that lead to extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will study both their present-day behaviour and likely changes in the future. In doing so, we will achieve a dynamically constrained understanding of future extreme precipitation events. This represents a considerable advance on our current understanding of future changes in extreme precipitation in Malaysia. We will then use this information to run a hydrological model to estimate future changes in streamflow, flood magnitudes and flood return periods. This model will include estimates of land use change which will also be developed as part of the project. Through this, information of unprecedented detail will be available to Malaysian government and society of the risks and impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation and associated changes in river flow. We will also use this information to assess current intervention strategies and to develop a model of flood management which takes into account our improved understanding of flood risk. This information will be disseminated to a wide array of actors across government and civil society to ensure it has maximum impact. Ensuring that future infrastructural, societal and agricultural development in Malaysia is informed by prospective changes in key climate events is critical if we are to successfully adapt to a warmer climate, whilst mitigating the impact of any changes on society and the economy of Malaysia. This project has the capacity to make a significant contribution to that aim.The techniques developed as part of this project could be readily applied in other river basins and countries, such that the impact and longevity of this work could be far broader than the scope currently envisaged. The project partners intend to work with other collaborators to ensure that these broader benefits are realised.